Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 2:30 AM   Moonset 3:43 PM

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FXUS62 KGSP 021427 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1027 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moisture will increase today as surface high pressure shifts offshore. As such, showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected. A typical summer pattern will return during the first half of the week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage for Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front approaches our area, with drier weather expected to return by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10:05 AM Sunday...shower coverage has diminished over our CWA during the past few hrs. A more well-defined line of heavier showers with a few embedded thunderstorms further south is about to move into our western-most NC zones. It's doubtful that we will see much (if any)
thunder/lightning over the next few hrs, as no significant instability is expected to materialize over our area until this afternoon.

Otherwise, upper ridging continues to shift east today as a baggy s/w trof crosses the FA. Little forcing will be had with this feature as it supports a weak sfc bndry pushing east during max heating. Soundings show lowering saturation of the column today and limited available sbCAPE or even muCAPE for that matter. A couple of the more unstable models indicate arnd 800 j/kg of afternoon CAPE, while other guidance is holding arnd 300 J/kg less. Little shear will be had as well, with profiles consistent with less than 15 kts 0-6km shear. Also, with the weak upper trof, mid-level LRs remain unremarkable. So, still expect isolated to sct thunderstorms developing ahead of a loose sfc conver- gence zone aft 17z continuing thru 00z, yet the prospect of severe criteria being met is low. Highs today will will be held about 5 to 7 degrees below normal due to deep moisture. Mins drop to near normal levels with a chance of dense fog before daybreak. The exact location of fog formation is unclear currently and will roughly depend where the heavier rain falls this afternoon. But for now the NC mtn valleys have the best chance for dense fog.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 213 AM Sunday: A typical summer pattern will return to the area to kick off a new work week on Monday. Surface high pressure offshore will allow for persistent onshore flow and modest moisture flux into the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Aloft, a belt of weak westerlies with several embedded shortwave troughs will extend from the Southern Plains into the Southern Appalachians. Low- level temperatures will rebound with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday with a warming trend continuing into Tuesday with low to upper 80s common. A few readings around 90 degrees will be possible across the Charlotte metro and lower Piedmont. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will also be possible each day with convection initiating over the mountains during the late morning and moving into the Upstate and North Carolina foothills through the afternoon. Forecast soundings are rather unimpressive, however, with poor thermodynamic profiles characteristic of tall/skinny CAPE and near moist adiabatic lapse rates. This will tamper updraft intensity with further complications from water loading. Thus, while a few strong storms with locally gusty wet microbursts cannot be discounted, a more robust severe weather threat is not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 227 AM Sunday: By the middle of the week, an intense Pacific jet moving into the Pacific Northwest will carve out a potent negatively tilted trough across the Northern Plains. This trough is then forecast to slide east across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region by Thursday. The strongest large scale height falls will remain displaced to our north, but at least modest forcing should grace the Southern Appalachians within increasing flow aloft.
This will promote a noticeable uptick in rain chances Wednesday into Thursday as better forcing works on a rather moist airmass entrenched across the region. Any severe weather threat remains uncertain as destabilization will be tied to the extent of cloud cover. A low-end severe weather threat may be realized should moderate destabilization occur, but will need to be assessed closer as the event nears. With time, guidance is in good agreement that the trough will evolve into a massive closed upper low centered over northern Michigan. An attendant surface cold front will approach the area Thursday with the frontal passage expected on Friday. This will usher in another dry airmass for the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: The weather becomes more active today as a weak, yet moist, sfc bndry pushes in from the west. Have all terminals seeing increasing chance of vicinity showers before daybreak and PROB30 thunder chances during the afternoon, generally beg 17z west and 18z east. Restrictions will be limited to lowering CIGs to MVFR after the tstms weaken and push east during the latter period. Could see IFR or lower VSBY near daybreak Mon across the TAF sites and this potential will be addressed with the 12z TAF set.
Winds remain rather low-end and generally s/ly to sw/ly as broad sfc ridging persists associated with a sfc high stationed off the Atl coast.

Outlook: Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances with associated restrictions will linger through the middle of next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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