Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS
June 2, 2024 10:45 PM CDT (03:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:38 AM Moonset 3:59 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 030150 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
...Updated To Remove Severe Thunderstorm Watch #376...
KEY MESSAGES
- Summer-like pattern with hotter highs and generally drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday
- Lower uncertainty with a return of isolated storms for rest of the period
UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Linear outflow dominated thunderstorm complex is dissipating in response to strong capping at 700 mb (14C on 00z DDC sounding).
With moist southeast winds ahead of the outflow boundary, continued attempts at weak convection are possible, but the threat of severe wind/hail has been reduced to near zero. Will monitor for convection over the southeast counties through early morning. After coordination with SPC, cancelled severe thunderstorm watch #376 for all of SW KS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The atmosphere has been fairly worked over early this afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. This is particularly true for the central and eastern zones of the FA.
This does introduce some uncertainty in the forecast as far as storm redevelopment goes. For example, the 3 km NAM has storms developing, but quickly kills this activity as the storms heads east towards the more stable air. This cam solution is different than the HRRR and ARW. These two models reload the atmosphere with 3000 J/kg of CAPE redeveloping across the western zones by late afternoon. Examining surface dewpoints does show 60+ dewpoints advecting in, so am tempted to go with the solution that shows another severe thunderstorm complex rolling across the Kansas plains late this afternoon and into the mid evening hours. Storms should develop along a lee trough late this afternoon either along the Colorado border or just east of it.
This activity should then head east and be along the Highway 283 corridor by mid evening. As far as threats are concerned, the primary threat is damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph. 1-3" hail is also possible if there are supercell structures. Bulk shear though is more marginal today, so think the primary threat would be the microbursts. Activity should be diurnally driven with a possible weakening trend as this activity heads east of Highway 283 to the far eastern zones late this evening. Otherwise, lows tonight will be seasonal with values in the 50s and 60s. A more quiet day is expected Monday. If there were to be any storms, it would be relegated to the eastern zones and only slight pops at that. Otherwise, highs will be seasonal with values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
EPS has a 500-hPa ridge developing across the spine of the southern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. This building ridge is also reflected in EPS probabilities of +90F in the 50% to 70% range midweek. The long and short of it is that a return to summer-like weather is expected midweek with generally dry conditions and hotter highs. Now how long these warmer temperatures will last is in question as EPS flattens the ridge next weekend. Several of the EC ensemble members show returning storm chances next weekend. At this point, will just go with the NBM solution due to the uncertainty. That has pops in the 15% to 30% range by the end of the period. A general decrease in temperatures may be possible with storms around, although that is not 100% certain as some of the EC ensemble members are dry.
Will watch for now and look for any particular trends in the ensembles as time goes forward in future runs.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main concern is a complex of thunderstorms moving across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will continue with VCTS and CB groups in for the terminals to account for this activity.
Wind gusts +50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is a bit uncertain if these outflow winds will directly impact the terminals. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence increases. GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 15-30 kt out side of storms.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
...Updated To Remove Severe Thunderstorm Watch #376...
KEY MESSAGES
- Summer-like pattern with hotter highs and generally drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday
- Lower uncertainty with a return of isolated storms for rest of the period
UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Linear outflow dominated thunderstorm complex is dissipating in response to strong capping at 700 mb (14C on 00z DDC sounding).
With moist southeast winds ahead of the outflow boundary, continued attempts at weak convection are possible, but the threat of severe wind/hail has been reduced to near zero. Will monitor for convection over the southeast counties through early morning. After coordination with SPC, cancelled severe thunderstorm watch #376 for all of SW KS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The atmosphere has been fairly worked over early this afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. This is particularly true for the central and eastern zones of the FA.
This does introduce some uncertainty in the forecast as far as storm redevelopment goes. For example, the 3 km NAM has storms developing, but quickly kills this activity as the storms heads east towards the more stable air. This cam solution is different than the HRRR and ARW. These two models reload the atmosphere with 3000 J/kg of CAPE redeveloping across the western zones by late afternoon. Examining surface dewpoints does show 60+ dewpoints advecting in, so am tempted to go with the solution that shows another severe thunderstorm complex rolling across the Kansas plains late this afternoon and into the mid evening hours. Storms should develop along a lee trough late this afternoon either along the Colorado border or just east of it.
This activity should then head east and be along the Highway 283 corridor by mid evening. As far as threats are concerned, the primary threat is damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph. 1-3" hail is also possible if there are supercell structures. Bulk shear though is more marginal today, so think the primary threat would be the microbursts. Activity should be diurnally driven with a possible weakening trend as this activity heads east of Highway 283 to the far eastern zones late this evening. Otherwise, lows tonight will be seasonal with values in the 50s and 60s. A more quiet day is expected Monday. If there were to be any storms, it would be relegated to the eastern zones and only slight pops at that. Otherwise, highs will be seasonal with values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
EPS has a 500-hPa ridge developing across the spine of the southern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. This building ridge is also reflected in EPS probabilities of +90F in the 50% to 70% range midweek. The long and short of it is that a return to summer-like weather is expected midweek with generally dry conditions and hotter highs. Now how long these warmer temperatures will last is in question as EPS flattens the ridge next weekend. Several of the EC ensemble members show returning storm chances next weekend. At this point, will just go with the NBM solution due to the uncertainty. That has pops in the 15% to 30% range by the end of the period. A general decrease in temperatures may be possible with storms around, although that is not 100% certain as some of the EC ensemble members are dry.
Will watch for now and look for any particular trends in the ensembles as time goes forward in future runs.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main concern is a complex of thunderstorms moving across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will continue with VCTS and CB groups in for the terminals to account for this activity.
Wind gusts +50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is a bit uncertain if these outflow winds will directly impact the terminals. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence increases. GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 15-30 kt out side of storms.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 22 sm | 53 min | S 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 55°F | 57% | 29.75 |
Dodge City, KS,
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