Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flatwoods, WV
June 2, 2024 4:57 PM EDT (20:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 2:16 AM Moonset 3:37 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 021734 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers through this evening. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM Sunday...
Unsettled weather will continue this afternoon into early this evening with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with the best chances along the periphery of some modestly enhanced H850 across the southern half of the forecast area. Activity should wane with loss of heating this evening, with only isolated activity in the vicinity of the mountains. With recent rainfall and rather dead flow overnight, will see at least patchy fog developing heading into Sunday morning, although remaining low level cloudiness should keep it from becoming too thick outside of the valleys.
Flow remains weak through a bulk of the day Monday with daytime heating supporting just isolated pop-up afternoon shower and thunderstorms - most locations will stay dry however.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now, WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However, that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.
Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday, models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep some clouds around.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through early this evening with the best chances for direct hits on terminals at CRW/CKB/EKN. Overall risk of thunder appears low enough to not warrant inclusion of VCTS/TSRA at this time. Activity wanes with loss of heating tonight.
Despite lingering low level cloudiness, a near saturated boundary layer and dead flow will support fog development overnight, perhaps locally dense in some valleys. Will include mostly IFR impacts heading into Sunday morning.
Winds remain light, less than 4KTs.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally heavy downpours could briefly reduce visibility to IFR this afternoon. Fog may be more dense for Sunday morning than advertised.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers through this evening. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM Sunday...
Unsettled weather will continue this afternoon into early this evening with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with the best chances along the periphery of some modestly enhanced H850 across the southern half of the forecast area. Activity should wane with loss of heating this evening, with only isolated activity in the vicinity of the mountains. With recent rainfall and rather dead flow overnight, will see at least patchy fog developing heading into Sunday morning, although remaining low level cloudiness should keep it from becoming too thick outside of the valleys.
Flow remains weak through a bulk of the day Monday with daytime heating supporting just isolated pop-up afternoon shower and thunderstorms - most locations will stay dry however.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now, WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However, that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.
Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday, models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep some clouds around.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through early this evening with the best chances for direct hits on terminals at CRW/CKB/EKN. Overall risk of thunder appears low enough to not warrant inclusion of VCTS/TSRA at this time. Activity wanes with loss of heating tonight.
Despite lingering low level cloudiness, a near saturated boundary layer and dead flow will support fog development overnight, perhaps locally dense in some valleys. Will include mostly IFR impacts heading into Sunday morning.
Winds remain light, less than 4KTs.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally heavy downpours could briefly reduce visibility to IFR this afternoon. Fog may be more dense for Sunday morning than advertised.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Charleston, WV,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE