Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oswayo, PA
June 2, 2024 7:43 PM EDT (23:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:04 AM Moonset 3:31 PM |
LEZ041 Expires:202406022115;;322361 Fzus51 Kbuf 021738 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 138 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-022115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 138 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Showers likely in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 138 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-022115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 138 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 022340 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
*Scattered showers this evening.
*Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday as temperatures and humidity ramp up.
*More widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday precedes a cooler weekend with scattered PM showers/storms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A mid level shortwave moving into Western PA is supporting a few showers across the region as of 23Z. Weak large scale forcing as inferred by model 500-300mb qvec convergence fields, combined with almost no cape per SPC mesoanalysis, suggests that coverage will remain sparse as the shortwave moves through late this evening.
Surging low level moisture, combined with a light upsloping flow, appears likely to result in persistent low clouds over the Allegheny Plateau overnight, with late night ridgetop fog possible. Further east, model RH profiles support partial clearing in the wake of the exiting shortwave late tonight.
However, lack of rain in most areas and mostly cloudy skies through a good deal of the night argue for a low risk of radiation fog south and east of the Alleghenies.
Cloud cover and surging dewpoints will result in a milder night than we've seen recently, with lows in the mid 50s over the N Mtns, to mid 60s across the Lower Susq Valley.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridging building into PA favors warmer and drier weather Mon-Tue. However, isolated, diurnally-driven convection is possible both days. On Monday, the best chance of an afternoon shower/tsra is over the northeast part of the forecast area associated with a weak shortwave diving south across the Hudson Valley. The upper ridge is progged to lie directly over PA Tuesday, suppressing convection in general. However, can't rule out an isolated PM pulse-type shower/tsra forming on the ridgetops of Central PA.
Ensemble mean 850mb temps of around 14C supports high temps Monday ranging from the mid 70s over the highest elevations of the Alleghenies, to the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley.
Ensemble 850mb/2m temp plumes indicate highs may be a degree or two warmer Tuesday.
Clearing skies and a calm wind may promote patchy valley fog late Monday night, primarily in the favored deep/river stream valleys of North Central PA.
The next notable chance for rain arrives on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system drifting across the Great Lakes helps bring surging Gulf Coast moisture into the northeast. Increasing clouds on Wednesday will keep temperatures in check with highs most likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase into Wednesday evening.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure passing well to the north of the state in the latter part of the week will push a cold or occluded front thru most likely on Thursday. The upper feature driving this sfc feature is a deepening closed low. The weak moisture plume in advance of the front will result in mainly light precip. If we can manage to break into the warm sector, we should have some thunder Wed night and Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed- Thu is around a half inch with near zero chances of 1"/24hrs time (20pct). After the front passes, the rest of the long range period will be dominated by the big closed low. It is almost cutoff, but does inch eastward with time. Some guidance (incl Op GFS) has the center of the upper low cross NY/PA over the weekend. That would make a very showery time with mainly aftn TS/SHRA and limited heating.
However, 8H temps won't be too chilly, running just one std dev to the left (colder) for June.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR cigs starting to occur over the west where precip is almost to the ground at JST and BFD. Such sparse radar returns, meager forcing, and low moisture plume riding overhead bends the forecast to a mainly dry time, but certainly worth at least a VCSH mention for the next 12 hrs in the west. The forcing slides to the east by 06Z. Will hold onto the MVFR cigs in the west and introduce them to UNV/AOO/IPT around 00Z. Fog and IFR CIGS will be possible late in the west mainly due to the westerly flow just aloft and the resultant upslope overnight. Since there won't be much rainfall and the ground won't be all that wet, visbys lower than 1SM are unlikely (40%) for the western terminals, and less than 20% chc at all other terminals tonight.
Will mention 1-2SM at AOO and UNV just to put forth the idea that it is not out of the envelope of solutions.
Sunrise should improve any sub-VFR conditions at the central and eastern terminals. However, the western sites will take a couple of hours to rise to MVFR. Shortwave ridging overhead should cap the cu around 8kft in the NW and 12-15kft in the SE on Monday. The instability and left over moisture could pop a SHRA or two, but they won't become too numerous, staying sct or isold, and mainly in the east/SE where the best of the heat and leftover mstr will be. There is the possibility (10%) for a TSRA at MDT or IPT afternoon. Have kept mentions of TS out for this pkg given that the possibility is so low and generally after 18Z Mon.
Outlook...
Tue...AM fog/IFR possible SE. Otherwise, no sig wx.
Wed...Sct SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible PM.
Wed night-Thurs...CFROPA with numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight restrictions likely (70%). IFR possible (30%).
Friday...AM fog poss, isold-sct PM SHRA/TSRA.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
*Scattered showers this evening.
*Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday as temperatures and humidity ramp up.
*More widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday precedes a cooler weekend with scattered PM showers/storms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A mid level shortwave moving into Western PA is supporting a few showers across the region as of 23Z. Weak large scale forcing as inferred by model 500-300mb qvec convergence fields, combined with almost no cape per SPC mesoanalysis, suggests that coverage will remain sparse as the shortwave moves through late this evening.
Surging low level moisture, combined with a light upsloping flow, appears likely to result in persistent low clouds over the Allegheny Plateau overnight, with late night ridgetop fog possible. Further east, model RH profiles support partial clearing in the wake of the exiting shortwave late tonight.
However, lack of rain in most areas and mostly cloudy skies through a good deal of the night argue for a low risk of radiation fog south and east of the Alleghenies.
Cloud cover and surging dewpoints will result in a milder night than we've seen recently, with lows in the mid 50s over the N Mtns, to mid 60s across the Lower Susq Valley.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridging building into PA favors warmer and drier weather Mon-Tue. However, isolated, diurnally-driven convection is possible both days. On Monday, the best chance of an afternoon shower/tsra is over the northeast part of the forecast area associated with a weak shortwave diving south across the Hudson Valley. The upper ridge is progged to lie directly over PA Tuesday, suppressing convection in general. However, can't rule out an isolated PM pulse-type shower/tsra forming on the ridgetops of Central PA.
Ensemble mean 850mb temps of around 14C supports high temps Monday ranging from the mid 70s over the highest elevations of the Alleghenies, to the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley.
Ensemble 850mb/2m temp plumes indicate highs may be a degree or two warmer Tuesday.
Clearing skies and a calm wind may promote patchy valley fog late Monday night, primarily in the favored deep/river stream valleys of North Central PA.
The next notable chance for rain arrives on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system drifting across the Great Lakes helps bring surging Gulf Coast moisture into the northeast. Increasing clouds on Wednesday will keep temperatures in check with highs most likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase into Wednesday evening.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure passing well to the north of the state in the latter part of the week will push a cold or occluded front thru most likely on Thursday. The upper feature driving this sfc feature is a deepening closed low. The weak moisture plume in advance of the front will result in mainly light precip. If we can manage to break into the warm sector, we should have some thunder Wed night and Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed- Thu is around a half inch with near zero chances of 1"/24hrs time (20pct). After the front passes, the rest of the long range period will be dominated by the big closed low. It is almost cutoff, but does inch eastward with time. Some guidance (incl Op GFS) has the center of the upper low cross NY/PA over the weekend. That would make a very showery time with mainly aftn TS/SHRA and limited heating.
However, 8H temps won't be too chilly, running just one std dev to the left (colder) for June.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR cigs starting to occur over the west where precip is almost to the ground at JST and BFD. Such sparse radar returns, meager forcing, and low moisture plume riding overhead bends the forecast to a mainly dry time, but certainly worth at least a VCSH mention for the next 12 hrs in the west. The forcing slides to the east by 06Z. Will hold onto the MVFR cigs in the west and introduce them to UNV/AOO/IPT around 00Z. Fog and IFR CIGS will be possible late in the west mainly due to the westerly flow just aloft and the resultant upslope overnight. Since there won't be much rainfall and the ground won't be all that wet, visbys lower than 1SM are unlikely (40%) for the western terminals, and less than 20% chc at all other terminals tonight.
Will mention 1-2SM at AOO and UNV just to put forth the idea that it is not out of the envelope of solutions.
Sunrise should improve any sub-VFR conditions at the central and eastern terminals. However, the western sites will take a couple of hours to rise to MVFR. Shortwave ridging overhead should cap the cu around 8kft in the NW and 12-15kft in the SE on Monday. The instability and left over moisture could pop a SHRA or two, but they won't become too numerous, staying sct or isold, and mainly in the east/SE where the best of the heat and leftover mstr will be. There is the possibility (10%) for a TSRA at MDT or IPT afternoon. Have kept mentions of TS out for this pkg given that the possibility is so low and generally after 18Z Mon.
Outlook...
Tue...AM fog/IFR possible SE. Otherwise, no sig wx.
Wed...Sct SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible PM.
Wed night-Thurs...CFROPA with numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight restrictions likely (70%). IFR possible (30%).
Friday...AM fog poss, isold-sct PM SHRA/TSRA.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KELZ WELLSVILLE MUNI ARPT,TARANTINE FLD,NY | 14 sm | 15 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 30.03 |
State College, PA,
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