Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:38 AM   Moonset 4:15 PM

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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 310 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of this afternoon - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less. Monday - SE wind 10 to 20 kts. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Monday night - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 ft or less. Tuesday - SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering S 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 022020 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 420 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated afternoon showers possible interior eastern Upper MI due to converging lake breezes.
- A round of showers and storms moves into the far western UP by early Monday morning.
- Frequent rain chances this week including thunderstorm potential through Wednesday. A few strong storms are possible Tuesday evening and overnight.
- Above normal temperatures through Wednesday, then turning cooler for the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Skies remain sunny across the area with weak ridging sliding over the Great Lakes and plenty of dry midlevel air in place. Still, some agitated cu is firing across the eastern UP, with converging lake breezes off of Superior and Lake Michigan. Cloud tops remain fairly low so far, and latest model and NUCAPS profiles still show some thermal capping aloft. If this can be overcome, though, a few showers out east cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, temperatures across most of the UP are climbing well into the 70s, but are a little cooler (mainly 60s) along the shorelines of the Great Lakes. Dewpoints are dropping into the lower 40s and even upper 30s in the interior-western UP, but light winds continue to limit our fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, RAP analysis shows midlevel troughing digging into the Plains, with tightening 850mb flow and WAA over MN already touching off some convection. This feature will continue to swing NE towards the Great Lakes into tonight while phasing with another wave currently moving across southern Saskatchewan. Showers finally reach the far western UP by the early hours of Monday, while a LLJ core becoming directed over the area potentially lending some divergence.
Some thunder will not be ruled out, but given an unfavorable onset timing during the pre-dawn hours, would not expect any severe convection.

Expect an otherwise mild night under increasing clouds. Temperatures likely won't fall below the 50 degree mark over most of the UP, save the far east, where clear skies hold out the longest. There, we may dip into the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 416 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and moist southwest flow ahead of an upper level trough lingers through Wednesday resulting in almost daily chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. There should be a general lull on Tuesday, but rain chances linger into Tuesday morning across the east and the next disturbance arrives Tuesday afternoon/evening across the west.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest day this week with highs warming to near or above 80F except for 70s downwind of Lake MI. A chance for strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall accompanies a cold front passage Tuesday night. A cooler but still humid air mass follows the front as an upper level low establishes a broader trough across the Great Lakes region late this week. As a result, rain chances late this week appear much lighter with limited thunder potential and primarily diurnal in timing.

Starting with Monday morning, the UP will be positioned between surface ridging to the east and a surface low to the west. A fairly tight pressure gradient is accompanied by a ~45-50 kt low level jet that translates east and weakens to 35-40 kts during the day. This suggests some potential for stronger winds/gusts, but considerable cloud cover and rain showers inhibit mixing so kept forecast winds close to NBM. I considered removing thunder chances on Monday due to meager CAPE values around or less than 100 J/kg, but any breaks in cloud cover could allow for greater destabilization. Rain showers gradually diminish while tracking across the eastern UP Monday evening and clearing skies expected shortly after the front passes. Conceptually, this scenario suggests potential for terrestrial radiation fog and maritime advection fog by Tuesday morning.

Terrestrial fog should dissipate Tuesday morning allowing for mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming to around 80F across most of the UP. Dew points around 60F indicate potential for unseasonable destabilization during the day (perhaps in the 2000-3000 J/kg range), consistent with EFI value of 0.5-0.7. Soundings suggest the area stays capped on Tuesday until the cold front moves in Tuesday night, but will need to monitor potential for a pop-up storm along any lake breeze boundaries that develop. Bulk shear also increases as the front approaches indicating an increasingly favorable environment for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Diurnal timing is more favorable for severe storms to our west, but the warm sector of a ~990 mb surface low in early June seems more threatening than the marginal risk currently outlooked by the SPC suggests.
NAEFS guidance also indicates pwats increasing above the 90th percentile Tuesday evening implying a heavy rain threat.

Model spread increases by Wednesday morning, presumably due to differences in convective development late on Tuesday. Most operational 12z models indicate the cold front will still be overhead or at least nearby Wednesday afternoon implying potential for afternoon redevelopment, mainly east. Modest mid-level cold air advection may dynamically destabilize the area on Wednesday leading to a round of diurnal showers/storms. However, I decided to pull thunder chances for Wednesday night onward as dew points fall below 50F and cool/dry air advection continues. The upper level low tracks southeast across the UP Wednesday thru Thursday night resulting in an extended period of unsettled and showery weather. Total rain amounts are expected to be light due to lack of quality moisture while temperatures trend below normal, especially daytime highs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR prevails at all terminals the rest of today into tonight with a ridge over the area. An approaching disturbance tonight may spread some -shra into IWD and CMX late tonight, but there is higher confidence in shower activity after 12Z Monday with ceilings lowering to MVFR. VFR holds on at SAW into tomorrow morning. Ahead of the disturbance, low-level jet will reach western Upper MI late tonight, resulting in LLWS at IWD/CMX. Otherwise, expect winds to remain below 10 knots, of variable direction today due to lake breezes but turning over to the SSE into Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 416 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue today into tonight as weak surface high pressure continues over Lake Superior. However, as a cold front moves through late tonight into Monday, southerly winds gust up to 20 to 25 knots Monday, particularly over the north- central lake and near tip of the Keweenaw. By Monday evening, winds diminish to 20 knots or less and stay light until a cold front approaches the lake Tuesday afternoon with southeast winds gusting to around 20 kts. The front cross the lake late Tuesday night and Wednesday with southwest winds to gusting up to 20 to 25 knots over the western half of the lake behind the front. A low pressure stalls over northern Ontario for the latter half of the week, resulting in a prolonged period of unsettled weather including west or southwest winds gusting to 15-25 kts through Friday evening. A few stronger gusts up to 30 kts are possible on Thursday.

As for other marine hazards, patches of dense marine fog are occurring across northeastern Lake Superior this evening. Dew point temperatures well above lake water temperatures and several periods of rain indicate potential for fog redevelopment on Monday through Tuesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible across the western lake tonight before spreading across the remainder of the lake Monday and Monday evening. Another cold front Tuesday night brings scattered thunderstorms across the lake from west to east from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. While severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, a few stronger storms capable of hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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