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FXUS64 KJAN 021814 AAB AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

GOES-16 and local radars are showing showers and thunderstorms near the Pine Belt and southwestern portion of the area. As a shortwave disturbance moves across the region, showers/thunderstorms will be possible east of I-55 and along/south of I-20. Some storms could be strong but severe weather is not anticipated.
Elsewhere, dry and quiet conditions are expected. Rain chances are expected to start diminishing late afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. /SW/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today and Tonight...

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off this morning as short term guidance continue to show a shortwave disturbance moving towards the east. A strong storm or two could be possible around this timeframe (especially across the Pine Belt), but severe weather is not anticipated. Current radar scans show a few lingering showers well south of our forecast area, with no heavy downpours expected.
Because of this, we went ahead and removed the flash flooding graphic for today. As the shortwave progress through the area, rain chances will start to diminish later this afternoon into the evening with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s. Heading into tonight, the shortwave disturbance will continue to track east out of our CWA and towards Alabama. This will lead to quiet conditions across central MS as clouds begin to clear mainly for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. HRRR guidance is hinting at some fog potential along and southeast of the Natchez Trace later in the overnight period. If trends continue to increase, a fog graphic will be introduced in our HWO. Expect overnight lows to drop into the upper 60s and low 70s. /CR/

Next week through early next weekend (Monday-Saturday)...

Through midweek (Monday-Wednesday): Active convective pattern will persist through midweek. Quasi zonal pattern will continue across majority of areas west of the MS River corridor, with the Gulf Coast region on the western periphery of departing trough axis moving across the Mid Atlantic to southeast states. This will keep west- northwesterly flow aloft & perturbed deep flow rounding shortwave ridging off to the southwest. With continued moist ascent & PWs near in excess of an inch & a half, there will be continued isolated to scattered rain & storm chances, with more isolated early week. With mean deep bulk shear only to around 20-30kts, not expecting much in the way of organized severe potential but vertical totals in the 25- 27 deg range & 6-7 deg C lapse rates could support some strong to isolated severe storms at most. There are indications a decaying MCS could move in out of the Plains to ArkLaTex into Monday aftn-evening across the Delta. Decided to advertise the "Marginal" across the extreme northwest Delta for Monday. As ridging persists over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, successive shortwaves are progged to move across the Gulf Coast region, with persistent rain & storm chances. Expect chances to migrate northeastward, with more isolated chances further southwest. Thermal profiles are getting more anomalous, with 500 temps in the 10th-25th percentile range, near the -10C to -12C range by midweek, with steepening mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 deg C & vertical totals in the 29-32 degree C range, especially across southwestern half of the area, some severe storms can't be ruled out each day, especially Wednesday where MCS activity is possible. Temperatures will become seasonably warm, with highs in low 90s by midweek, with some increased heat stress/heat indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Lows will be seasonably warm in the low 70s east of I-55 to low-mid 70s along & northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor.

Late week-early next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging is progged to amplify over the Four Corners to West TX by late week, with more significant northwesterly flow moving across the northern Plains-Mid West-Great Lakes to as far as the Mid South to northern portions of the Gulf Coast-Appalachians regions. This is in response to a significant cold core low/frontal system diving across southern Canada to south of the Hudson Bay area. This will drag an organized frontal system down across the CONUS into the Gulf Coast region by late week. Expect additional scattered rain & storm chances, with a little stronger deep flow around the area. Additional isolated strong-severe storms are possible, with low end CSU probs continuing to indicate that potential. No areas are outlooked in the HWO for this week. With frontal system progged to move into the area, recent trends have slowed the decreased heat & humidity into late weekend.
Seasonable temperatures in the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s-low 70s late week to mid-upper 60s by late week into late next weekend.
/DC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected at most TAF sits except for HEZ which is currently under MVFR flight conditions due to scattered cloud cover and lingering showers. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for southern and eastern TAF sites and rain chances are expected to diminish late afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible early Monday morning, resulting in possible MVFR flight conditions due to lower visibility. Expect VFR flight conditions to return after sunrise. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 89 71 90 / 10 20 10 20 Meridian 68 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 20 Vicksburg 70 89 73 91 / 0 20 10 10 Hattiesburg 69 89 71 91 / 20 20 10 20 Natchez 69 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 10 Greenville 72 89 74 90 / 0 20 20 20 Greenwood 70 90 73 90 / 0 20 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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