Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN
June 2, 2024 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM Moonset 4:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 021855 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms today with gusty winds and heavy rain being the main hazards.
* Scattered storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially Wednesday.
The main threats will be heavy downpours and gusty winds.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Synoptically, 5h shortwave responsible for today's weather will continue to exit to our east allowing for zonal flow aloft and weak ridging to advect over the OH Valley. Low level cyclonic flow is evident on radar as showers pinwheel around the base of the surface low centered over south central Indiana, while GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals breaks in the clouds.
This increased sunshine will help destabilize the region allowing for isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and into the the early evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows a ridge of instability over our CWA with SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Shear is minimal with VWX VWP and AMDAR soundings out of SDF showing light winds throughout the column.
Slight veering within the column is indicative of the weak warm advective pattern in place, but updrafts will struggle due to weak mid level lapse rates. With that said, sufficient dry air aloft and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg along and west of I-65 could produce some strong winds with any stronger convection. With that said, not expecting any severe weather with today's activity.
Tonight, expect winds to subside and clouds to clear as weak high pressure briefly builds over the region. Some models suggest fog development by early Monday morning so will add mention of patchy fog, which could affect the morning commute.
Monday is shaping up to be a rather pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and afternoon temps rising into the mid 80s, while light SSW winds push dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Dry weather will continue into Monday night, with some patchy valley fog possible in the Blue Grass and Lake Cumberland regions with mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds. Lows will be in the lower and middle 60s.
Rain chances return on Tuesday as a small 5H vort max crosses Illinois helping to spark showers and storms in 1.75" precipitable water air. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but there will be enough instability to get thunderstorms going in the afternoon as the mercury meets or slightly exceeds convective temperatures in the middle 80s with dew points in the middle and upper 60s. Scattered pulse storms are expected, with the most likely threats, other than the lightning threat that accompanies all thunderstorms, being locally heavy downpours and precipitation loading induced gusty winds.
On Wednesday vapor transport from the western Gulf will increase into the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A spoke of lower 5H heights reaching southeast from the main upper low over southern Manitoba will reach southeast into our region as well. Deep layer shear may be a little stronger on Wednesday in association with swifter 500mb flow south of the Manitoba low, but still shouldn't be terribly impressive. CAPE is progged to be a bit weaker on Wednesday with continuing weak mid- level lapse rates, possibly partly a result of morning clouds and showers. CSU-ML has been very consistent over the past four days pegging Wednesday as our most likely day for severe weather this week. This is still the case, but probabilities have decreased slightly. The best upper level divergence will remain well to our north, and the surface low will be far off in western Ontario.
Nevertheless, we'll still have plenty of instability and moisture for showers and storms, and with the incoming cold front, some strong to severe storms do still appear possible. Again the main threat would be gusty winds given the expected pulse nature of the storms and high freezing heights.
Thursday through Sunday will lean drier as the Canadian upper low pushes east into New England and surface high pressure tries to build in from the Plains and Midwest. Will hold on to some chance of rain given our position on the edge of cyclonic flow aloft, but will keep PoPs low.
Temperatures will cool off a bit as we head into the weekend. Highs are expected to slip from the mid 80s Thursday to around 80 Friday and Saturday. CPC outlooks show increased chances of cooler than normal temperatures for much of the first two weeks of the month.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Latest surface analysis reveals low pressure over Indiana with a weak cold front stretching south across the TN Valley, while current radar shows scattered showers moving generally west to east across the region. Breaks in the cloud cover will allow for increased diurnal heating, which will help spark additional showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. AMDAR soundings out of SDF continue to show light wind columns with meager lapse rates, which adds to low confidence in thunderstorms. Tonight, expect winds to slacken and clouds to clear leading to potential fog development by early Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected shortly after sunrise.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms today with gusty winds and heavy rain being the main hazards.
* Scattered storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially Wednesday.
The main threats will be heavy downpours and gusty winds.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Synoptically, 5h shortwave responsible for today's weather will continue to exit to our east allowing for zonal flow aloft and weak ridging to advect over the OH Valley. Low level cyclonic flow is evident on radar as showers pinwheel around the base of the surface low centered over south central Indiana, while GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals breaks in the clouds.
This increased sunshine will help destabilize the region allowing for isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and into the the early evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows a ridge of instability over our CWA with SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Shear is minimal with VWX VWP and AMDAR soundings out of SDF showing light winds throughout the column.
Slight veering within the column is indicative of the weak warm advective pattern in place, but updrafts will struggle due to weak mid level lapse rates. With that said, sufficient dry air aloft and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg along and west of I-65 could produce some strong winds with any stronger convection. With that said, not expecting any severe weather with today's activity.
Tonight, expect winds to subside and clouds to clear as weak high pressure briefly builds over the region. Some models suggest fog development by early Monday morning so will add mention of patchy fog, which could affect the morning commute.
Monday is shaping up to be a rather pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and afternoon temps rising into the mid 80s, while light SSW winds push dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Dry weather will continue into Monday night, with some patchy valley fog possible in the Blue Grass and Lake Cumberland regions with mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds. Lows will be in the lower and middle 60s.
Rain chances return on Tuesday as a small 5H vort max crosses Illinois helping to spark showers and storms in 1.75" precipitable water air. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but there will be enough instability to get thunderstorms going in the afternoon as the mercury meets or slightly exceeds convective temperatures in the middle 80s with dew points in the middle and upper 60s. Scattered pulse storms are expected, with the most likely threats, other than the lightning threat that accompanies all thunderstorms, being locally heavy downpours and precipitation loading induced gusty winds.
On Wednesday vapor transport from the western Gulf will increase into the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A spoke of lower 5H heights reaching southeast from the main upper low over southern Manitoba will reach southeast into our region as well. Deep layer shear may be a little stronger on Wednesday in association with swifter 500mb flow south of the Manitoba low, but still shouldn't be terribly impressive. CAPE is progged to be a bit weaker on Wednesday with continuing weak mid- level lapse rates, possibly partly a result of morning clouds and showers. CSU-ML has been very consistent over the past four days pegging Wednesday as our most likely day for severe weather this week. This is still the case, but probabilities have decreased slightly. The best upper level divergence will remain well to our north, and the surface low will be far off in western Ontario.
Nevertheless, we'll still have plenty of instability and moisture for showers and storms, and with the incoming cold front, some strong to severe storms do still appear possible. Again the main threat would be gusty winds given the expected pulse nature of the storms and high freezing heights.
Thursday through Sunday will lean drier as the Canadian upper low pushes east into New England and surface high pressure tries to build in from the Plains and Midwest. Will hold on to some chance of rain given our position on the edge of cyclonic flow aloft, but will keep PoPs low.
Temperatures will cool off a bit as we head into the weekend. Highs are expected to slip from the mid 80s Thursday to around 80 Friday and Saturday. CPC outlooks show increased chances of cooler than normal temperatures for much of the first two weeks of the month.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Latest surface analysis reveals low pressure over Indiana with a weak cold front stretching south across the TN Valley, while current radar shows scattered showers moving generally west to east across the region. Breaks in the cloud cover will allow for increased diurnal heating, which will help spark additional showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. AMDAR soundings out of SDF continue to show light wind columns with meager lapse rates, which adds to low confidence in thunderstorms. Tonight, expect winds to slacken and clouds to clear leading to potential fog development by early Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected shortly after sunrise.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN | 10 sm | 7 min | NW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 63°F | 61% | 29.96 | |
| KHNB HUNTINGBURG,IN | 15 sm | 46 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 77°F | 66°F | 69% | 29.98 |
Louisville, KY,
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