Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 3:50 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KILN 030141 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 941 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and moves through the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Isolated showers are persisting across southeast portions of our area ahead of a weak surface low moving through the mid Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a few spotty showers are also lingering across northern portions of our area along a slow moving weak frontal boundary. With weak forcing across our area, expect an overall weakening/dissipating trend in the showers as we head into the overnight hours as we lose the daytime instability.
This should also allow for a decreasing cloud trend through late evening but with lingering boundary layer moisture, some areas of stratus and fog are expected to develop later tonight into early Monday morning, with the best chance for this for areas along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Surface high will build in and then slide off to the east during the period. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Any fog and stratus in the morning will eventually break and evolve into some scattered cumulus. The cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating with just some high clouds Monday night. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Highs are forecast to spike into the middle to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon with humid conditions in place. Some instability should develop by the afternoon which allows for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances although coverage remains uncertain since forcing and shear is weak. Muggy conditions and some rain chances continue into Tuesday night due to persistent southerly flow.

The cold front and upper level trough arrives later in the day on Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected since peak diurnal instability appears at least moderately likely to overlap deep moisture, shear, and forcing. The cold front will then progress to the east Wednesday night thereby quickly reducing shower and storm chances. Winds shift to the west behind the front and cooler air arrives.

Below average temperatures and westerly winds persist through the end of the week due to a long wave trough setting up over the Great Lakes region. Multiple chances for showers will exist in this synoptic setup as cold fronts and shortwaves rotate around the trough axis.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Isolated shower activity should gradually decrease through the evening hours. However, lingering low level moisture and light flow will likely result in the development of low clouds and fog across the area later tonight. This will lead to MVFR to IFR cigs later tonight into early Monday morning along with IFR to LIFR vsbys. Vsbys will begin to improve through mid to late morning but MVFR to IFR cigs will likely linger through late morning before improving into VFR and then scattering out through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,