Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:57 AM   Moonset 4:19 PM

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FXUS66 KHNX 020856 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 156 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

1. Gusty west winds will continue through this morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes and redevelop each afternoon and evening until Monday.

2. Following a cool down until Monday, a more significant warming trend will take place starting midweek for most of the San Joaquin Valley, lower Sierra Nevada foothills, and the Kern County Desert. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for these areas for Wednesday and Thursday, as the probabilities for 105-degree readings are generally high for this time of year.

3. Hot temperatures will continue Friday into next weekend with little, if any, relief.

4. The anticipated heat for later this week could lead to increased snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada with colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways.

DISCUSSION
Today's afternoon high temperatures won't be as warm as on Saturday, thanks to a weak upper-level trough that has been passing over the Golden State. Also, gusty westerly winds will continue to buffet the Mojave Desert slopes through mid-morning where gusts reach around 45 to 55 mph. Flow aloft becomes zonal this evening into Monday. Given the time of year, this portion of Kern County will observe gusty winds as long as we remain in a troughy or zonal pattern. In addition, latest high resolution guidance paints probabilities of around 50-80 percent again late this afternoon until this evening, though with a more widespread area for Monday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, Monday will be seasonably warm in most locations, or with readings similar to today.

The ridge builds over the region beginning Tuesday and will allow a significant increase in temperatures by Wednesday. The main weather concern for this week will be the excessive heat on Wednesday and Thursday, as the hottest temperatures for the year are on tap. Widespread triple digit heat will arrive in the Central Valley on Wednesday, and highs are unlikely to stop at just 100 degrees in many locations. In terms of maximum temperatures of 105 degrees or higher, the probability remains around 35-65 percent in the SJ Valley for both Wednesday and Thursday, except even higher (75-95 percent) in the desert areas of Kern County. Low temperatures show similar chances to be in the 70's by Thursday morning. In addition, we are forecasting a slight chance of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada beginning Thursday. There will be plenty of moisture due to snow melt, and some weaknesses in the longwave ridge pattern or embedded disturbances cannot be ruled out.

As for Friday through next Sunday, above average temperatures will continue. Friday won't be much different from Thursday, based on probabilities of continued highs of 105 degrees and above, as well as warm overnight lows (mainly the 70's). With the exception of the Kern County desert, highs of 105 degrees or hotter have lower probabilities of occurrence on Friday than on Thursday, including 20-40 percent for Friday in the Central Valley. It appears triple digit heat lingers into the weekend in the SJ Valley, as the blended guidance shows chances for 100 degrees or higher at 20-40 percent. The chances for 105 degrees or hotter readings are still about 40-70 percent chance for the Kern County desert areas on Friday. Also, there remains about 20-40 percent of highs at least 105 degrees for the desert on Saturday. At this time, the ridge will gradually weaken, though it probably won't completely leave us any time soon. So, it won't be much cooler even by next weekend. Isolated Sierra Nevada thunderstorm chances continue Friday through next weekend each afternoon and evening.

The expected increased snow melt is likely to lead to higher flows along streams and rivers, and we will continue to monitor.
While cold and fast moving water has already been happening, it may be a bigger issue next week as the water will become even more inviting due to the anticipated heat later this week.
Use additional care if heading into the water, and heed any lake and river closures.


AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior for the next 24 hours. Gusts around 45 knots are possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes until 15Z Sunday and again after 23Z Sunday.



AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338.

Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for CAZ301>307-309>317-319-321-337-339.

Brandt Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:34 AM PDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:29 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM PDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:03 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:37 PM PDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:10 PM PDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brandt Bridge, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,