Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockville, NE
June 2, 2024 9:56 AM CDT (14:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 9:11 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 4:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 021125 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Confidence continues to increase in thunderstorms producing significant damaging winds (75+ mph) and large hail (some >2" in diameter) across western and north central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible.
- A low confidence, but high impact corridor of wind driven significant hail will be possible this evening across western Nebraska, as initial supercells begin to grow upscale into a line.
- Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday and Tuesday, though the threat for severe weather appears low at this time. A lull in precipitation chances is then on tap as we head into midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Currently, convection persists across portions of northern Nebraska early this morning, in response to a broad southerly LLJ positioned east of the Rockies across the High Plains. This is leading to additional shower and thunderstorm development across portions of northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. Broad warm advection persists this morning, with temperatures holding in the low to middle 60s across the area.
For today, a potentially high impact severe weather episode is possible across much of western and north central Nebraska. Aloft, broad west-southwesterly flow prevails across much of the Plains, with upper troughing established over northern Manitoba. This will lead to broad, positive vorticity advection through the afternoon, with a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the mean southwest flow aloft, approaching the area by early this evening. At the surface, a weak surface low will move northeastward across the Dakotas this afternoon, dragging a dryline to near/just west of the HWY 61 corridor. Ahead of the dryline, broad southeasterly flow should increase dewpoints into the middle 60s near/east of HWY 83 and as high as low 60s dewpoints further west. As strong surface heating commences through the afternoon, temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 80s to the east of the dryline. This combination of warming and moistening of the boundary layer and increasing convergence along the aforementioned dryline should erode any lingering CIN by mid-afternoon. Convection looks to initiate primarily across the high terrain of the Laramie Range, moving east with time late this afternoon. As this convection moves eastward into western Nebraska, it will encounter much richer boundary layer moisture in the largely uncapped airmass to the east of the dryline.
This should lead to rapid intensification, with an initial supercellular storm mode for western Nebraska. Hodographs are largely straight-line with height at least initially across western/southwest Nebraska, with broad 35-40kt westerly H5 flow aloft. Enough cyclonic curvature looks to exist in the lowest few kilometers for right movers to dominate, though cannot completely rule out a left split or two early on. These initial supercells look to provide a threat for large to very large hail, with robust MLCAPE 2500-3000J/kg, very steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE largely distributed colder than 0C aloft, and mid-level storm relative wind vectors favorable to both larger updrafts and limit hail embryo seeding. That said, some weaknesses exist in the mid-levels of the hodograph north of HWY 2, and could lead to a lesser hail threat with northward extent.
As the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to overspread the area, along with an approaching cool front, increasing forcing for ascent should lead to gradual upscale growth, especially as convection approaches and moves east of the HWY 83 corridor.
This leads to a low confidence, but potentially high impact scenario for a corridor of significant wind driven hail, as supercells begin to grow upscale. This potential will especially be maximized on the southern end of any bowing segments, which high-res guidance loosely paints somewhere in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor late this evening. As supercells grow upscale into clusters/bowing segments, the threat for significant damaging winds looks to quickly increase across portions of southwest into central and north central Nebraska. High- res guidance continues to paint rather concerning signals for gusts locally exceeding 80mph in the quick moving line as it translates from west to east. Forecast soundings late this evening support the higher end wind potential, with higher LCLs above a very dry sub- cloud layer, dry adiabatic low level lapse rates, and robust DCAPE values approaching 1500-2000J/kg. As the low level jet strengthens by late evening, increasing low level shear could lead to mesovortex production on the leading edge of any bowing segments. Will have to watch the southern end of the convective line should it maintain any supercell characteristics as well, as this increasing low level shear could locally enhance a brief tornado threat. As for failure modes, will have to watch for the potential for outflow outpacing any convective lines, though confidence in this remains low for now.
Bottom line: Those with outdoor plans this evening should remain weather aware, and confidence continues to increase in a swath of potentially significant damaging winds and large hail across much of southwest and central Nebraka this evening.
The line will quickly exit the area early tonight, with lesser chances for and thunderstorms for the rest of the overnight period.
Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Monday afternoon across the area, though confidence in the placement of surface boundaries and associated corridors of higher instability remain low confidence. Lesser deep layer shear should limit the severe potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
One more day of thunderstorm chances exists Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the area Tuesday afternoon, though again deep layer shear and lesser instability should limit any widespread severe weather threat. As we head into midweek, upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS, with heights rising locally. This will lead to a lull in precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures look to return to the upper 80s to low 90s across southwest Nebraska on Wednesday as well. Confidence still remains lowered for late week and into the weekend, primarily with respect to the depth and positioning of a trough anchored across the Great Lakes. Still, at least some potential for thunderstorms look to return late week and into the weekend, as convection from the high terrain should move into the area in the broad northwesterly flow aloft.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A couple aviation weather concerns exist through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to cross the Sandhills this morning (through 14z or so) before fair conditions resume.
A more organized complex of storms is anticipated this evening, likely taking the form of a line with high winds and heavy rain.
Gusts of 50+ kts and large hail are possible with the strongest storms. In the meantime, ambient surface winds will gust to 20 kts from the south.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Confidence continues to increase in thunderstorms producing significant damaging winds (75+ mph) and large hail (some >2" in diameter) across western and north central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A brief tornado or two will also be possible.
- A low confidence, but high impact corridor of wind driven significant hail will be possible this evening across western Nebraska, as initial supercells begin to grow upscale into a line.
- Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday and Tuesday, though the threat for severe weather appears low at this time. A lull in precipitation chances is then on tap as we head into midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Currently, convection persists across portions of northern Nebraska early this morning, in response to a broad southerly LLJ positioned east of the Rockies across the High Plains. This is leading to additional shower and thunderstorm development across portions of northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. Broad warm advection persists this morning, with temperatures holding in the low to middle 60s across the area.
For today, a potentially high impact severe weather episode is possible across much of western and north central Nebraska. Aloft, broad west-southwesterly flow prevails across much of the Plains, with upper troughing established over northern Manitoba. This will lead to broad, positive vorticity advection through the afternoon, with a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the mean southwest flow aloft, approaching the area by early this evening. At the surface, a weak surface low will move northeastward across the Dakotas this afternoon, dragging a dryline to near/just west of the HWY 61 corridor. Ahead of the dryline, broad southeasterly flow should increase dewpoints into the middle 60s near/east of HWY 83 and as high as low 60s dewpoints further west. As strong surface heating commences through the afternoon, temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 80s to the east of the dryline. This combination of warming and moistening of the boundary layer and increasing convergence along the aforementioned dryline should erode any lingering CIN by mid-afternoon. Convection looks to initiate primarily across the high terrain of the Laramie Range, moving east with time late this afternoon. As this convection moves eastward into western Nebraska, it will encounter much richer boundary layer moisture in the largely uncapped airmass to the east of the dryline.
This should lead to rapid intensification, with an initial supercellular storm mode for western Nebraska. Hodographs are largely straight-line with height at least initially across western/southwest Nebraska, with broad 35-40kt westerly H5 flow aloft. Enough cyclonic curvature looks to exist in the lowest few kilometers for right movers to dominate, though cannot completely rule out a left split or two early on. These initial supercells look to provide a threat for large to very large hail, with robust MLCAPE 2500-3000J/kg, very steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE largely distributed colder than 0C aloft, and mid-level storm relative wind vectors favorable to both larger updrafts and limit hail embryo seeding. That said, some weaknesses exist in the mid-levels of the hodograph north of HWY 2, and could lead to a lesser hail threat with northward extent.
As the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to overspread the area, along with an approaching cool front, increasing forcing for ascent should lead to gradual upscale growth, especially as convection approaches and moves east of the HWY 83 corridor.
This leads to a low confidence, but potentially high impact scenario for a corridor of significant wind driven hail, as supercells begin to grow upscale. This potential will especially be maximized on the southern end of any bowing segments, which high-res guidance loosely paints somewhere in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor late this evening. As supercells grow upscale into clusters/bowing segments, the threat for significant damaging winds looks to quickly increase across portions of southwest into central and north central Nebraska. High- res guidance continues to paint rather concerning signals for gusts locally exceeding 80mph in the quick moving line as it translates from west to east. Forecast soundings late this evening support the higher end wind potential, with higher LCLs above a very dry sub- cloud layer, dry adiabatic low level lapse rates, and robust DCAPE values approaching 1500-2000J/kg. As the low level jet strengthens by late evening, increasing low level shear could lead to mesovortex production on the leading edge of any bowing segments. Will have to watch the southern end of the convective line should it maintain any supercell characteristics as well, as this increasing low level shear could locally enhance a brief tornado threat. As for failure modes, will have to watch for the potential for outflow outpacing any convective lines, though confidence in this remains low for now.
Bottom line: Those with outdoor plans this evening should remain weather aware, and confidence continues to increase in a swath of potentially significant damaging winds and large hail across much of southwest and central Nebraka this evening.
The line will quickly exit the area early tonight, with lesser chances for and thunderstorms for the rest of the overnight period.
Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Monday afternoon across the area, though confidence in the placement of surface boundaries and associated corridors of higher instability remain low confidence. Lesser deep layer shear should limit the severe potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
One more day of thunderstorm chances exists Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the area Tuesday afternoon, though again deep layer shear and lesser instability should limit any widespread severe weather threat. As we head into midweek, upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS, with heights rising locally. This will lead to a lull in precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures look to return to the upper 80s to low 90s across southwest Nebraska on Wednesday as well. Confidence still remains lowered for late week and into the weekend, primarily with respect to the depth and positioning of a trough anchored across the Great Lakes. Still, at least some potential for thunderstorms look to return late week and into the weekend, as convection from the high terrain should move into the area in the broad northwesterly flow aloft.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A couple aviation weather concerns exist through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to cross the Sandhills this morning (through 14z or so) before fair conditions resume.
A more organized complex of storms is anticipated this evening, likely taking the form of a line with high winds and heavy rain.
Gusts of 50+ kts and large hail are possible with the strongest storms. In the meantime, ambient surface winds will gust to 20 kts from the south.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE | 23 sm | 21 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.86 |
Grand Island, NE,
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