Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Two Rivers, WI
June 2, 2024 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:07 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 4:14 PM |
LMZ543 Expires:202406030100;;329873 Fzus53 Kgrb 022011 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 310 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-030100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 310 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - S wind 5 to 10 kts. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday - S wind 10 to 20 kts. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night - S wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday - S wind 10 to 20 kts. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 310 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-030100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 310 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
LMZ500
No data
No data
FXUS63 KGRB 022336 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms on Monday.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of east-central Wisconsin in the afternoon. Gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rain would be the main threats.
- More strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain will be the primary hazards.
- Conditions hazardous to small craft will be possible at times from Wednesday through Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Monday
Main forecast challenge to be timing/extent of showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the small possibility of stronger storms in the afternoon.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure that extended from northern Lake Superior to the mid-MS Valley. An area of low pressure was situated over central SD with a warm front that stretched southwest into southwest IA. Visible satellite showed high clouds streaming over WI with fair weather cu that had developed in the heating of the day.
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. Clouds are expected to steadily be on the increase through the night as south winds pull moisture northward. This moisture transport, coupled with increasing isentropic lift, will bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms into north-central and central WI toward daybreak. There could be some patchy fog to develop near Lake MI as moist air moves over the cooler lake waters. Min temperatures tonight to range from the lower 50s near Lake MI, to the upper 50s across north-central/ central WI.
The shortwave trough sweeps into the western Great Lakes on Monday and bring showers/chance of thunderstorms to all of northeast WI.
The precipitation will begin to diminish in the afternoon across central WI as the better forcing shifts east with the trough. Some of these storms will have the capability of becoming strong as shear reaches 30-40 knots in the afternoon, especially over east- central WI. Models indicate MUCAPES of 500-1500 J/KG, but much of this instability will depend on how fast showers/storms move east.
Latest guidance from SPC has moved parts of east-central WI into the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms based on some models developing a weak low pressure on the backside of the shortwave trough. Gusty winds and small hail would be the main threats.
Another factor to watch will be for locally heavy rains as PW values climb to around 1.5 inches and the forecast area to be under the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet for lift. Max temperatures Monday to be in the middle 60s near Lake MI, lower to middle 70s inland.
Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday
An energetic weather pattern will bring periods of showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday thanks to southwest flow aloft and occasional shortwave energy traversing the region.
Thunderstorm chances and potential impacts are the primary forecast concerns during this period.
Thunderstorm Chances: Shortwave energy will be exiting the region by the start of Monday evening. Modest elevated instability will remain in place behind the shortwave, but large scale ascent will depart with the wave and nocturnal stabilization should lead to only low chances of showers and storms. Most models generate light qpf over far northeast Wisconsin and this looks appropriate.
Northern WI will be in a weak warm advection pattern for the rest of the night into Tuesday morning. Relatively steeper mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km will remain over southern WI and northern IL during this time and a relative lull in forcing should occur. Will likely see a break in the precip coverage during this time.
This may change on Tuesday afternoon if shortwave energy arrives from the southwest and gets to interact with daytime instability.
Not all guidance shows this shortwave moving into northern WI, so confidence is relatively low with the details. But if it does, dewpoints will be creeping up into the middle and upper 60s by this time and modified forecast soundings indicate instability upwards of 2000 j/kg. With temps approaching their convective temps by midday, conditions support scattered thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Localized heavy rain will be possible given the relatively slow storm movement.
Additional thunderstorms are likely to arrive from the west during the evening when a potent shortwave and associated cold front move through the region. Forcing looks robust for widespread precipitation, but instability will be at its diurnal minimum so thunderstorm chances will be waning through the night. Better chance of strong thunderstorms will reside west of the region.
The region will reside under upper troughing on Wednesday. Models depict weak instability developing with the heat of the day that could lead to scattered storm development in the afternoon. Far northern WI will have the highest chances.
Severe Potential: The main period to watch will be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. As mentioned above, ample instability (2000 j/kg cape) will be in place as dewpoints climb into the mid and upper 60s. However, deep layer shear is weak and roughly around 20 kts. Seems like a recipe for pulse storms and perhaps an isolated severe threat given the magnitude of instability and dcapes around 700 j/kg. Outflow boundaries and lake breezes could also augment the forcing arriving aloft (if it does arrive). Strong winds and hail will be the primary threats.
Prospects for severe storms on Tuesday night look low as timing of the front coincides with minimal cape of 200-400 j/kg. While deep layer shear will be increasing aloft, storms are likely to be elevated, thereby reducing the severe risk.
Rest of the forecast: Beneath upper troughing, showers look possible on Thursday and Friday. There will be a cooler airmass in place by this time, so thunderstorm potential looks low. Flattened troughing looks to hang around through next weekend which will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.
AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions prevailed across the forecast area during the late afternoon to early evening as a fair weather cumulus field gradually began to erode. Conditions will start to deteriorate late tonight into Monday morning as a system approaches from the west. A line of showers is expected to arrive early Monday morning, affecting RHI, CWA, and AUW by around 09Z to 12Z. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to build in from west to east throughout the morning, becoming more widespread by early afternoon.
As storms move through the area Monday morning, western TAF sites are likely to exceed the LLWS threshold as a nocturnal low-level jet propagates to the east. Onshore flow may also result in some early morning lake fog making it inland to MTW. As a result, visbys may briefly drop to MVFR.
Some strong to severe storms may be possible across east-central Wisconsin early Monday afternoon through the evening. Best potential for stronger storms would be from the southern Fox Valley to the lakeshore. Opted not to include thunder in the TAFs due to low confidence given timing and the effect of a stable lake breeze shunting most instability north and west of the Fox Valley.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms on Monday.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of east-central Wisconsin in the afternoon. Gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rain would be the main threats.
- More strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain will be the primary hazards.
- Conditions hazardous to small craft will be possible at times from Wednesday through Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Monday
Main forecast challenge to be timing/extent of showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the small possibility of stronger storms in the afternoon.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure that extended from northern Lake Superior to the mid-MS Valley. An area of low pressure was situated over central SD with a warm front that stretched southwest into southwest IA. Visible satellite showed high clouds streaming over WI with fair weather cu that had developed in the heating of the day.
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. Clouds are expected to steadily be on the increase through the night as south winds pull moisture northward. This moisture transport, coupled with increasing isentropic lift, will bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms into north-central and central WI toward daybreak. There could be some patchy fog to develop near Lake MI as moist air moves over the cooler lake waters. Min temperatures tonight to range from the lower 50s near Lake MI, to the upper 50s across north-central/ central WI.
The shortwave trough sweeps into the western Great Lakes on Monday and bring showers/chance of thunderstorms to all of northeast WI.
The precipitation will begin to diminish in the afternoon across central WI as the better forcing shifts east with the trough. Some of these storms will have the capability of becoming strong as shear reaches 30-40 knots in the afternoon, especially over east- central WI. Models indicate MUCAPES of 500-1500 J/KG, but much of this instability will depend on how fast showers/storms move east.
Latest guidance from SPC has moved parts of east-central WI into the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms based on some models developing a weak low pressure on the backside of the shortwave trough. Gusty winds and small hail would be the main threats.
Another factor to watch will be for locally heavy rains as PW values climb to around 1.5 inches and the forecast area to be under the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet for lift. Max temperatures Monday to be in the middle 60s near Lake MI, lower to middle 70s inland.
Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday
An energetic weather pattern will bring periods of showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday thanks to southwest flow aloft and occasional shortwave energy traversing the region.
Thunderstorm chances and potential impacts are the primary forecast concerns during this period.
Thunderstorm Chances: Shortwave energy will be exiting the region by the start of Monday evening. Modest elevated instability will remain in place behind the shortwave, but large scale ascent will depart with the wave and nocturnal stabilization should lead to only low chances of showers and storms. Most models generate light qpf over far northeast Wisconsin and this looks appropriate.
Northern WI will be in a weak warm advection pattern for the rest of the night into Tuesday morning. Relatively steeper mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km will remain over southern WI and northern IL during this time and a relative lull in forcing should occur. Will likely see a break in the precip coverage during this time.
This may change on Tuesday afternoon if shortwave energy arrives from the southwest and gets to interact with daytime instability.
Not all guidance shows this shortwave moving into northern WI, so confidence is relatively low with the details. But if it does, dewpoints will be creeping up into the middle and upper 60s by this time and modified forecast soundings indicate instability upwards of 2000 j/kg. With temps approaching their convective temps by midday, conditions support scattered thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Localized heavy rain will be possible given the relatively slow storm movement.
Additional thunderstorms are likely to arrive from the west during the evening when a potent shortwave and associated cold front move through the region. Forcing looks robust for widespread precipitation, but instability will be at its diurnal minimum so thunderstorm chances will be waning through the night. Better chance of strong thunderstorms will reside west of the region.
The region will reside under upper troughing on Wednesday. Models depict weak instability developing with the heat of the day that could lead to scattered storm development in the afternoon. Far northern WI will have the highest chances.
Severe Potential: The main period to watch will be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. As mentioned above, ample instability (2000 j/kg cape) will be in place as dewpoints climb into the mid and upper 60s. However, deep layer shear is weak and roughly around 20 kts. Seems like a recipe for pulse storms and perhaps an isolated severe threat given the magnitude of instability and dcapes around 700 j/kg. Outflow boundaries and lake breezes could also augment the forcing arriving aloft (if it does arrive). Strong winds and hail will be the primary threats.
Prospects for severe storms on Tuesday night look low as timing of the front coincides with minimal cape of 200-400 j/kg. While deep layer shear will be increasing aloft, storms are likely to be elevated, thereby reducing the severe risk.
Rest of the forecast: Beneath upper troughing, showers look possible on Thursday and Friday. There will be a cooler airmass in place by this time, so thunderstorm potential looks low. Flattened troughing looks to hang around through next weekend which will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.
AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions prevailed across the forecast area during the late afternoon to early evening as a fair weather cumulus field gradually began to erode. Conditions will start to deteriorate late tonight into Monday morning as a system approaches from the west. A line of showers is expected to arrive early Monday morning, affecting RHI, CWA, and AUW by around 09Z to 12Z. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to build in from west to east throughout the morning, becoming more widespread by early afternoon.
As storms move through the area Monday morning, western TAF sites are likely to exceed the LLWS threshold as a nocturnal low-level jet propagates to the east. Onshore flow may also result in some early morning lake fog making it inland to MTW. As a result, visbys may briefly drop to MVFR.
Some strong to severe storms may be possible across east-central Wisconsin early Monday afternoon through the evening. Best potential for stronger storms would be from the southern Fox Valley to the lakeshore. Opted not to include thunder in the TAFs due to low confidence given timing and the effect of a stable lake breeze shunting most instability north and west of the Fox Valley.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTW MANITOWOC COUNTY,WI | 7 sm | 18 min | SE 05 | 9 sm | Clear | 66°F | 55°F | 68% | 29.96 |
Green Bay, WI,
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