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FXUS64 KMEG 022012 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will continue through mid-week. Several upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Wednesday. There exists a potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development along and west of the Mississippi River tomorrow afternoon through evening with primary threats of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. A weak cold front will move through Thursday decreasing our rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak upper level ridging continues to dominate the region leading to a relatively dry day across the Mid-South. Upper level water vapor imagery currently denotes a shortwave over northern Mississippi where a few clusters of pop-up convection continue to form along. 20- 25% PoPs were held over northeast Mississippi through late this evening to cover this continued pop-up convection. Upper ridging has created a pretty warm, early June day with current temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with light, variable surface winds. As light to eventual calm surface winds remain across the Mid-South under a thin cirrus deck, fog is likely to develop along the Tennessee River, spreading east. Fog and reduced visibilities tonight do not look as widespread as last night as the aforementioned cloud cover will likely diminish widespread coverage.

Come tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase in areas along and west of the Mississippi River as an upper level trough and associated upper level low rotate in over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Several shortwaves will eject from this upper low leading to increased lift for possible strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Grand Ensemble members have a >60% chance of surface based CAPE >1500 J/kg and about a 30% chance of 0-6km bulk shear >30 kts over this same area. Bottom line, there exists a conditional chance for severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. Primary threats, if any, will be damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall.

PWATs surge near the 90th percentile Tuesday and into Wednesday as what looks like a few MCVs move across the area along decent height falls and several shortwaves ejecting from the west.
Dewpoints also edge up into the mid 70s Wednesday morning into afternoon leading to ample moisture availability in support of continued showers and thunderstorms. Greatest rainfall amounts of up to 2" will fall over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel through Thursday morning.

A low pressure system will push east and set up along the Great Lakes and Canada border with an attendant, weak cold front. This front will begin pushing across the Mid-South Thursday afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish by Thursday evening as mostly dry conditions continue through next weekend.
Temperatures will also decrease slightly behind this aforementioned front with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Daily high temperatures ahead of this front will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Good news, the CPC 8-10 day temperature outlook has us slightly below normal heading into mid June.

AEH

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Potential exists for patchy fog and/or low stratus at TUP and perhaps MKL towards sunrise Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of TS through the 18Z TAF period. TS potential expected to remain limited to TUP for a short period this afternoon. TS chances anticipated to increase Monday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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