Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM   Moonset 3:32 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 138 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Showers likely in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 61 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 022257 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 657 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers will gradually end tonight as weak low pressure dissipates over the area. The system will leave behind plenty of moisture, resulting in areas of low clouds and fog overnight through Monday morning. Mainly dry weather returns Monday, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Above average temperatures will prevail the first half of the week before a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday through Thursday, with the front ushering in cooler temperatures by late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A mid level shortwave will move east across NY, reaching western New England overnight while deamplifying with time. At the surface, a remnant low will dissipate across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. The weakening forcing and eastward progression of the trough will allow remaining showers this evening to gradually taper off and end overnight.

The washing out surface low will leave plenty of low level moisture behind. Surface dewpoint depressions are already minimal across Western NY, and forecast thermal and moisture profiles are quite supportive of fog and low stratus development overnight, especially across Western NY. Expect fog to gradually increase in coverage after dark, and may become quite widespread across Western NY, the Genesee Valley, and western Finger Lakes by late tonight.

Monday, areas of low stratus and fog will likely persist through the morning commute, especially across Western NY where low level moisture is forecast to be most widespread. The fog will dissipate as the morning progresses. Otherwise, mainly dry weather will return Monday as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region. That said, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible during peak heating where low level convergence is enhanced by differential heating, terrain, and lake breeze boundaries. Highs will be found solidly in the 70s to low 80s in spots.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Ridging aloft will remain in place through Tuesday night keeping mainly dry conditions intact, before a cold front slowly crosses the region bringing showers and thunderstorms to western and northcentral NY midweek. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will move from eastern NY to the New England coast by Tuesday night allowing for very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Wednesday, before cooler weather starts to filter in across the region Thursday in wake of a cold front.

Mainly dry weather is expected Monday night through most of Tuesday night with high pressure surface and aloft in control of our weather. Other than limited diurnal instability developing second half of Tuesday possibly producing an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon/early evening hours along and inland of any lake breeze circulations, ridging will suppress most if not all convection. Very warm Tuesday with highs averaging about 10 degrees above average, translating to low to mid 80s for much of the area, slightly cooler highest terrain areas. Tolerable humidity levels will hold on for one more day.

Mid/upper level ridge starts to break down and shift east late Tuesday night and Wednesday as upstream deepening trough digs southeastward across the upper and central Great Lakes. At the surface, several boundaries extending from associated low pressure over northwestern Ontario will cross the area from late Tuesday night through Thursday. First will be a weak warm front that may spark off a few showers/isolated storm east of the Finger Lakes late Tuesday night/early Wednesday at moves through. Next up will be a prefrontal trough Wednesday, although overall forcing appears to be fairly weak with this feature. That said, a very moist airmass in place behind the warm front combined with strong diurnal heating may produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Muggy and warm conditions continue Wednesday, with similar temperatures to Tuesday, however temps will be lower in areas that see more persistent showers and storms.

The main show this time around will be with the actual cold front as it slowly moves east across the area Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday. Severe weather threat with the cold front looks low at this time, especially with the poor diurnal timing. The more notable threat looks to be heavy rain with any stronger thunderstorms (tall skinny CAPE profiles) owed to a slow moving front combined with PWATs upwards of 1.50-1.75 inches. In fact, WPC has our area outlined in a MRGL Risk (5%) for heavy rain during this timeframe. Cold front should clear east of the area by Thursday afternoon, however a cool/moist cyclonic flow aloft associated with a "bowling ball" trailing upper level low combined with an increasingly unstable environment owed to strong diurnal heating will keep the likelihood for showers and storms going through the peak heating hours of the day. The deeper moisture will have been stripped away with the earlier cold frontal passage, significantly lowering the overall heavy rainfall threat. Stronger steering flow aloft will also keep storms moving right along, although steepening low level lapse rates and better shear profiles may allow a few stronger storms to develop. Change back to a cooler regime starts Thursday, with highs mainly in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low forecast confidence for the Thursday night through Sunday timeframe due to an upper level cut off low overhead of the Great Lakes. Said upper level low will also allow a few embedded shortwaves to round its base. This far our its hard to pinpoint the exact location and timing of the shortwaves. Overall this will support a persistent risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. Additionally, if the timing of the shortwave passages align with peak diurnal heating there may be a threat that some thunderstorms become frisky and turn severe. However on the optimistic side of things there will be plenty of rain-free time between shortwave passages.

With the upper level low overhead, expect a cooling trend as continental polar air over Canada filters southeast across the Great Lakes. Highs Friday through Sunday will range in the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain and the low 70s elsewhere.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mid level shortwave will move east of the area into western New England overnight, while an associated weak surface low dissipates over the eastern Great Lakes. Remaining showers this evening will gradually taper off and end overnight as the system continues to weaken.

The main concern overnight through Monday morning will be the potential for widespread fog and low stratus. The washing out system will leave behind abundant low level moisture, with forecast soundings and model guidance quite supportive of widespread IFR in fog and low stratus across Western NY, the Genesee Valley, and western Finger Lakes overnight through Monday morning. The most widespread IFR will likely be from about 06Z-13Z Monday.

The fog and low stratus will gradually evolve into an MVFR stratocumulus deck as Monday morning progresses, then improve to VFR in the afternoon as low level moisture mixes out. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Monday afternoon, but the majority of the area will stay dry.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Chance of a few spotty thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light winds and minimal waves into mid-week.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday with a few rounds of thunderstorms likely. West to southwest winds will increase on the lakes behind the cold front Thursday through Friday with choppy conditions developing.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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