Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:16 AM   Moonset 3:26 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KSHV 021959 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 259 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday Morning)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Focusing on Tonight through Monday morning...

Dense overcast from early this morning has started to scatter out and a cumulus field has been left in it's place across the region.
Though local temperatures struggled to climb this morning, the introduction of diurnal heating from extra sun exposure has allowed for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80's across areas of the Ark-La-Tex. Similarly, a tight moisture gradient south of the FA this morning has quickly advanced northward, supporting Td values in the low to mid 70's.

To the west, a complex of thunderstorms across north Texas and SW Oklahoma has formed into a broad MCS that is advancing east- southeast, approaching in and around the DFW metro over the next few hours. Given mesoscale parameters depicting rapidly increasing instability locally, and the stubborn NW flow regime across the southern US, this will need to be closely monitored for downstream impacts. Given the lack of model handling, mesoanalysis will be crucial to determine the potency, and impact that this complex has on local convective coverage this evening.

Overnight, and again depending on any impacts from what occurs from the convection out west, conditions should trend quiet to start, but once again hi-res CAMs and HRRR solution depict possible MCS development from convection firing along a dry line along the TX/NM border, working east, and entering the Four State sometime close to sunrise, if not an hour or so earlier. While convection is expected out west, uncertainty surrounds the additional extracurricular MCS formation that CAMs have proposed. Therefore, have worked lower end PoPs for the time being to cover the possible development through the morning. Evening guidance and real-time analysis of convective initiation in that region should help assist overnight thinking.

On the temperature front, once again expect lows in the upper 60's and low 70's across the region. Close T/Td relation following passing storms and saturated soils will support patchy fog through the mid to late morning. As a result, have added this to the forecast through sunrise, though it could exist a few hours after.
This will again depend on the possible secondary convective development by the morning which again remains uncertain. Highs tomorrow will again approach 90 deg F for many as the pattern remains in place to start the new week.

RK

LONG TERM
(Monday afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday afternoon through the end of the period...

Another severe risk will cover the Ark-La-Tex Monday afternoon as a Slight Risk has been drawn up across almost all of the SHV responsible counties and parishes. Quick atmospheric recovery, along with a persistent NW flow regime, will once again support the initiation of thunderstorms northwest of the FA, that may evolve into another bowing MCS, developing a strong cold pool, and ultimately work into the Four State Region through the mid to late afternoon and evening of Monday. Model agreement in the short run is something to take away here as guidance has struggled with convective initiation and evolution of recent bowing MCS events over the last week. That being said, main concern here will be the threat of damaging wind, hail and the chance for a tornado or two.

Looking beyond Monday, the pattern continues to suggest that NW flow will hang around through about mid-week as upper ridging builds to the west across the Four Corners. The subtle influence of the ridge however may be enough to support a daily increase in MaxT's as highs approach the middle 90's by the end of the period before a progged frontal passage stops temps from climbing any higher.
Still some uncertainty in the long range on just how much of an impact the front will bring, but for now it remains something to look forward to. At the same time, given the NW flow pattern, can not rule out additional long track bowing segments through the week. This pattern is one of uncertainty, and something to take day to day.

RK

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Very difficult 18z TAF package as upstream convection is not a given to move into our airspace this evening into the overnight hours despite the trend lately of upstream convection holding together. Starting the package with borderline MVFR/low VFR ceilings that will eventually become low VFR areawide. While we will likely see isolated to scattered afternoon convection today across NE TX into N LA, held off on mentioning VCTS until 00z and continued that into midnight as the timing of convection is the biggest discrepancies with the latest model guidance. Did bring back MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight towards sunrise Monday morning across most terminals without any VCTS but even that is not a given based on a variety of CAMS which suggest otherwise.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 90 76 91 / 30 30 10 20 MLU 71 89 73 90 / 20 20 10 20 DEQ 69 84 70 87 / 30 40 20 10 TXK 72 88 72 90 / 30 40 20 10 ELD 70 87 71 89 / 20 40 10 10 TYR 73 88 74 92 / 50 30 20 10 GGG 73 88 74 90 / 40 30 10 10 LFK 72 90 74 91 / 20 20 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Shreveport, LA,