Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 9:25 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM   Moonset 4:08 PM

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LMZ362 Expires:202406030315;;329421 Fzus63 Kmkx 022007 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 307 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
winds will remain light and variable through tonight as weak high pressure increase out of the southeast Monday as a trough of low pressure from southern alberta to the northern great plains deepens to around 29.2 inches. Low pressure then drifts northeastward into ontario through Thursday. Southerly winds over the lake continue through Tuesday night, then a cold front crosses the lake Wednesday, causing winds to veer westerly. Westerly winds continue through the end of the week as the low weakens to 29.4 inches and rests over southern ontario.
periods of showers and Thunderstorms are forecast from Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-030315- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 307 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 ft or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 021836 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog likely tonight across northeast lower Michigan.

- Chances for showers/storms at times late Monday through Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues late this week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure settles overhead tonight and slides just to the east into early Monday, setting the stage for fog development across northeast lower. This feature will move east of the region into Monday as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Pressure gradient will tighten some as high pressure is displaced with lower pressures and thus a few southerly mild breezes and warm temperatures anticipated. Showers will be on the increase due to the approaching short wave.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

High pressure builds into the region tonight resulting in calm to a slight southeast wind into early Monday. With clearing skies and temperatures likely dropping near or around saturation, fog looks like a good bet across portions of the area, especially northeast lower Michigan. Very light/slight southeast flow coupled with the higher terrain of interior northern lower looks to aid in fog development in a general area from Gladwin and vicinity up towards Gaylord as well.

Energy aloft approaches Monday afternoon/evening with a modestly moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the mid, perhaps upper 50s. However, deeper moisture and an unstable airmass will advect into the region but largely holds off until the overnight hours and into Tuesday. Thus should be showers with potentially some embedded thunder approaching the Lake Michigan open waters/coastal regions by the late afternoon/evening, likely in decaying fashion. Much of the actual precip should fall just beyond this period, with details in the long term discussion below.
Temperatures soar into the lower 80s across inland locations, about 10 degrees cooler near coastal sections of Lake Huron thanks to low level east flow/lake breeze.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Forecast: By early Monday night, a convectively enhanced mid- level shortwave is expected to be trekking across northern Michigan.
More amplified shortwave troughing encroaches on the area late Tuesday out ahead of closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection that are expected to drift from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region late this week. Some signs over the last 24 hours that perhaps this late week system isn't quite as slow-moving/ stationary as previously thought, but none the less, still a rather extended stretch of cool, cloudy and showery weather expected late in the work week into the weekend.

Forecast Details: By Monday evening, upstream convection across WI and the central U.P. likely to be making a run toward northern Michigan, albeit in decaying fashion. Meager forcing and limited instability expected locally with up to a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE should limit overall thunderstorm coverage and strength. Higher likelihood for stronger storms displaced to our southwest tied to lower-level instability gradient. None the less, an increase in PoPs seems reasonable locally with isolated to scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temps largely in the 80s across inland northern lower on Monday...70s in the U.P. and near Lake Huron given a southeast wind off Lake Huron. Likely stuck in the 60s at much of the immediate Lake Huron shoreline.

Winds veer more southerly for Tuesday, aiding to increase deep moisture across northern Michigan. This evident by PWs progged to balloon to greater than 1.50" (potentially > 1.75") by late in the day...some +1 to 2 SD above early June normals per NAEFS climatology. While some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon is possible in the presence of warm temperatures, mid-60s dew points, steepening lapse rates and increasing instability, better chances for more numerous showers arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front that's progged to cross during the day Wednesday. Worth monitoring timing of the frontal passage -- if timing continues to slow, potential for strong to severe storms may increase given a better shot of notable instability during the day Wednesday combined with bulk shear values between 30-40 kts.

By Thursday, a secondary cold front is progged to cross the forecast area during the day, aiding to reinforce much cooler temperatures as vertically stacked low pressure meanders from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. This system will keep its effects felt through much of the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 5-10 degrees below normal (coolest Friday-Saturday), lots of clouds, breezy, and occasionally rainy periods. Almost an early fall type end to the week/weekend rather than late spring/early summer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SCT-BKN 007-015 still remains across northeast lower, while elsewhere FEW-SCT020-050 primarily. Expect slow clearing to continue from west to east this afternoon. Light and variable to light southeast winds expected tonight, with FG development the main concern. Highest confidence in KAPN seeing substantial FG, and such reflected in the TAF with 1/2 mi VIS. Lesser confidence across other TAF terminals. Patchy to areas of FG also likely from Gladwin county up towards Otsego. FG clears out during the late morning hours on Monday with otherwise dry conditions most areas through this TAF cycle.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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