Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 3:33 PM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 925 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft exercise caution - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming around 15 knots late in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. A moderate chop on the bay, diminishing to light chop early in the morning.

GMZ100 925 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis - Strong high pressure over the gulf will support moderate to fresh southeast southeasterly winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas through the forecast. Small craft exercise caution will be needed for the next several days with small craft advisories possible.

FXUS64 KBRO 021736 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Message:

-Above normal temperatures continue

Generally quiet weather will prevail in the short term. A mid-level ridge will remain in place, supporting dry and warmer than normal weather. High pressure over the Gulf will fuel moderate to breezy southeast winds. High temperatures will top the century mark for most inland locations today and Monday. Heat index values will range from 105 to 110 degrees for a few hours each afternoon, and could briefly go to 111 or 112 degrees in some areas. Decided to forego a heat advisory for now based on the borderline conditions. Low temperatures will be near 80 tonight. The movement of a short-wave trough through the ridge could trigger Sierra Madre Oriental convection tonight, but models keep any significant precip west of deep South Texas. For those going to the beach, a moderate rip current risk will prevail today and tonight, possibly shifting to high on Monday as wave heights and swell periods increase.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

500 mb high pressure initially centered over northern Mexico will gradually build northwest through the period, eventually becoming centered over the Four Corners area of the United States. This pattern will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA through the long term forecast period. However, some model guidance suggests that a shortwave riding within the mid-level flow may generate some convection over the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico Monday night, which may then propagate into the far western portion of the BRO CWFA. The potential for this will need to be monitored by successive shifts, especially since the Storm Prediction Center places Zapata County in a general risk of thunderstorms at that time. For now, however, the forecast will be dry as previously stated.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the remainder of the daylight hours of the period.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a breezy to windy onshore flow through the period. Despite the enhanced pressure gradient, a WIND ADVISORY is not expected to be needed.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR ceilings are expected to persist through the afternoon hours before MVFR ceilings return with low-level clouds. These low-level clouds are expected to mix out during the morning hours tomorrow, which will allow for VFR ceilings to return once more.
Southeasterly winds are expected to remain gusty through the period at all three TAF sites.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate to slightly elevated wave heights will prevail. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will dominate, with marginal small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf possible by tonight. High pressure will continue ridging into the Gulf from downstream, supporting the enhanced winds and seas.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast through the first half of the period courtesy of thermal low pressure over Mexico interacting with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions will improve to Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria Wednesday night through Thursday, with even more improved winds and seas for Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds farther west into the western Gulf of Mexico and weakens the pressure gradient.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 82 95 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 98 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 100 82 100 81 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 81 102 80 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 82 87 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Padre Island (South)
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Sun -- 01:48 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:37 AM CDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:14 AM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:36 PM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Sun -- 01:29 AM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:35 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:05 AM CST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:15 AM CST     0.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:04 PM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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