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FXUS64 KFWD 021712 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The period of active weather continues across North Texas with thunderstorm chances increasing this afternoon and overnight.
Currently, an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of southwest Oklahoma with individual storms moving off to the northeast. The entire cluster of storms is drifting east-southeast with time and will likely spread into parts of North Texas through the afternoon. This activity developed along a well defined moisture axis early this morning and has continued to strengthen along a differential heating boundary through midday. As thicker low cloud cover has scattered out across the region, strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid 70s yields around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and this will likely increase further into the afternoon. While the parameter space is becoming increasingly favorable, visible satellite imagery still shows generally flat CU across North Texas at this time suggesting that additional storm development is still a little ways off.
Minimal convective inhibition should allow this to occur rather quickly though as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. For the remainder of this afternoon, we've raised PoPs to around 40% for most areas along and north of I-20. Convection should be scattered, but semi-organized clusters could evolve with time enhancing the potential for severe wind gusts in addition to a severe hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for parts of North Texas to account for this threat.

This initial wave of convection should move east with time and we'll turn attention back to the west this evening. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement with additional thunderstorm development across West Texas and the Panhandle along the dryline late this evening, however, we'll have to see what impact this current complex has on the instability off to our northwest. If it wipes out much of the instability, then the likelihood of another complex traveling over the same area late tonight would be considerably lower than currently advertised in the model guidance. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see what kind of late afternoon recovery we get before increasing confidence in overnight thunderstorm activity. For now, we'll maintain 40-60% overnight PoPs generally along and north of I-20, but these could go either significantly lower or higher depending on what happens over the next several hours. If another complex does develop and spread east with time, it would be accompanied by a damaging wind threat along with a continued heavy rainfall threat.

For Monday, any early morning activity would be exiting the region to the east with limited recovery for additional thunderstorms until late afternoon. We'll have PoPs at 20% areawide late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 304 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ /Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid- to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday's daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As we've seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday- Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vis have scattered out over the last hour and VFR prevails across most of N TX at this hour. This will continue through the afternoon with the main concern being convective potential. We should see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and will continue with a VCTS for now with timing likely best in the 20-22Z timeframe. Additional thunderstorms are expected overnight, but this may become dependent upon the ongoing complex to our north and west. We'll continue to advertise TS overnight and monitor for additional adjustments. Another round of at least MVFR cigs are expected although model guidance is particularly aggressive on IFR/LIFR. This seems unlikely based on convective forecast trends and will forego showing cigs/vis that low at this time. If overnight convection does not materialize, then the probability of lower cigs/vis would increase.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 73 89 75 92 / 40 40 20 20 5 Waco 89 74 89 74 93 / 30 30 20 20 5 Paris 87 70 86 71 87 / 20 30 30 20 10 Denton 88 71 88 73 91 / 40 50 20 20 0 McKinney 87 71 87 73 89 / 30 40 20 20 5 Dallas 90 73 89 74 92 / 40 40 20 20 5 Terrell 87 71 88 73 91 / 30 40 20 20 5 Corsicana 89 74 89 76 91 / 30 30 20 20 5 Temple 89 74 90 75 92 / 20 30 20 20 5 Mineral Wells 87 71 91 73 93 / 40 40 20 10 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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