Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 954 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Overnight - SW winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 954 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure will slide off the coast for tonight and Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the first week of june.

FXUS61 KAKQ 020544 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather continues through tonight as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. A weak low pressure system will bring the chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm and unsettled weather returns from mid to late week with scattered showers and storms possible through the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cloudy weather continues overnight.

Current wx analysis depicts sfc high pressure centered over the Outer Banks with an upper level ridge axis in place across the east coast. Temps as of 140 AM were generally in the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies. The high will continue moving farther offshore overnight with the ridge aloft pushing offshore by around sunrise this morning. Overnight lows will mostly range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with some mid 50s in the typically coolest rural interior locations.

SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for a few showers late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with a slightly higher chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible west of the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A dampening shortwave and very weak sfc low will track just to our north (from W to E) on Sunday. The low-level flow increases a bit out of the SSW, which will allow dew points to recover to ~60F by late aftn, although the best moisture return will still be to our S and W. Nevertheless, isolated showers or sprinkles are possible across the Piedmont by mid-late morning with low PoPs for showers in the NW half of the FA by the aftn/evening. The highest shower chances shift to the eastern third of the FA by Sun night. Given that both sfc- based and elevated instability will be very limited or nonexistent, am not expecting much of any thunder through Sun night. Highs Sun in the upper 70s-lower 80s, with lows in the 60s Sun night with dew points rising to the 60-65F range by sunrise on Mon. Another subtle shortwave moves towards the area Mon with weak NW flow aloft. It will be a bit warmer on Mon with highs in the low- mid 80s with dew points rising into the mid- upper 60s. This should allow for enough instability for tstms, and am expecting isolated to scattered storms area-wide by the aftn/evening as the environment will be uncapped with that shortwave moving through.
While severe wx is not expected, a few storms on Mon could produce ~45 mph wind gusts which could result in very localized tree damage. Tstms diminish Mon night w/ the loss of daytime heating. Lows Mon night will be in the 60s. A backdoor cold front approaches the area Mon night and crosses part of the area on Tue. There won't be much of a forcing mechanism for convection along/ahead of the front, but will maintain slight chc PoPs for isolated aftn/evening showers/tstms (mainly inland). Forecast highs Tue are in the mid 70s-lower 80s near the immediate Atlantic coast, with mid 80s in most areas west of the bay.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists from mid to late week with multiple chances for showers and storms.

- Mild with highs in the low-mid 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a trough moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New England from mid to late week, potentially becoming a cutoff low near or just north of the Great Lakes. As this pattern change occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves moving through the area...which will give us daily chances for isolated- scattered showers/tstms. While it is very hard to time individual shortwaves this far in advance, it appears that the greatest chance for storms all week will be on Wed and/or Thu as the combination of the upper level trough approaching and a cold front moving through (likely on Thu) should provide for enough forcing for at least somewhat organized convection. A potential overlap of shear and instability may allow for some stronger storms as well. However, as alluded to above, uncertainty is still high this far out regarding timing of the necessary ingredients for any mention of severe wx, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, warm/humid wx persists all week with highs mainly in the mid 80s each day (upper 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Shore) and lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 140 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through the 6z taf period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through most of Sun with a low chance for showers (which aren't expected to cause flight restrictions)
late Sun into Sun night (~30% PoPs at RIC/PHF/ORF, 40% at SBY, and 20% at ECG). Given low confidence in both timing and coverage, have refrained from mentioning VCSH or -SHRA in the tafs at this time. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (due to cirrus) continue through Sun night with a potential improvement to SCT at PHF/ORF/ECG Sun morning. CIGs lower to ~5000-6000 ft Sun night. Winds were light S/SW <5 kt tonight. Winds become SW 5-10 kt Sun (closer to 10 kt by Sun afternoon) before becoming light and variable Sun night.

Chances for scattered showers and storms are increasing Mon afternoon into Mon evening with VIS restrictions possible. Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, unsettled weather returns on Wed/Thu with additional chances for showers/storms.

MARINE
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

-High pressure shifts offshore today. Outside of any thunderstorms Monday and later next week, generally quiet marine conditions are favored.

High pressure is gradually shifting offshore this afternoon. Winds are light and variable as of 230 PM, but are expected to shift to the south areawide over the next few hours into this evening and then to the SSW late tonight. This is in response to the high shifting further offshore. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a 4- 8 hr period (from about 3-11z/11 PM-7 AM) of south winds approaching 18 kt sustained in the Chesapeake Bay (with gusts 20-25 kt). At this time, will continue to hold off on SCA headlines and keep the official wind forecast just below 18 kt due to the marginal and brief nature of the surge. An MWS or short-fused SCA may still be required and will monitor through this aftn. Winds become due south again for Sunday and should remain sub-SCA. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt are expected in the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt on the coastal waters. A slow-moving cold front will drop S through the waters Monday into Monday night. Winds will remain on the light side and be from the SSW south of the front and E/ENE north of the front. With the nearby front, scattered showers and storm could develop over or near the marine area Monday aftn, with locally higher winds and waves. With the front south of the area Tuesday, E winds ~10 kt are expected. A warm front lifts N Wednesday and the flow again turns southerly. This will favor an unsettled pattern with afternoon shower and storm chances Wed and Thu. Outside of storms, winds stay mainly sub-SCA.

Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft in the nrn bay) tonight w/ the elevated S winds. Otherwise, waves/seas of 1-3 ft are expected through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Assacorkin Island
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Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Public Landing
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Sat -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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