Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 11:26 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM   Moonset 4:56 PM

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PKZ762 Bristol Bay From Cape Chichagof To Cape Pierce Out To 15 Nm- 330 Am Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.Tonight - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon - N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Mon night - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.Tue - W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.Wed - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 021410 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 610 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level low dropping south from the Arctic along the west coast will open the door for easterly waves to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Interior each afternoon.
Seasonable temperatures expected. Out west, northerly Gale force winds will continue through the Bering Strait through at least Tuesday. A convergence zone will form today along the Dalton Highway corridor stretching from around Coldfoot north to Deadhorse. This will bring a mix of precipitation, with rain expected south of the Brooks Range, a mix of rain and snow over Brooks Range Passes, and a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain on the North Slope and Arctic Coast through early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Analysis and Model Discussion...A ridge of high pressure aloft that brought sunny and warm conditions to the Interior on Saturday will slowly break down starting Sunday as a deep Arctic trough digs south over the West Coast. This trough will bring cooler conditions across the area and open up the door for easterly wave after easterly wave to move through the Central and Eastern Interior, bringing showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through at least the middle of the week. On Sunday and Monday as the ridge weakens with the trough digging south, a convergence zone will set up from the northern Interior north across the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast. This will bring precipitation, heavy at times, to the Dalton Highway corridor. Accumulating snow is likely over Atigun Pass, across much of the Arctic Plain, and north to Prudhoe Bay. Freezing rain is even possible north of the Brooks Range with ice accumulations of a light glaze. High pressure over the western Chukchi Sea combined with very low pressure over Interior Alaska will cause sustained Gale or near Gale force winds through the Bering Strait through at least Wednesday.

Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern aloft and on placement and timing of shortwaves and precipitation. We will use a blend of models for the forecast and make pretty minimal changes from the inherited forecast. A few changes we will make are to increase PoPs to likely for much of the Central Interior on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. We will also expand the area of thunderstorms and increase the coverage of thunderstorms across the Interior on Tuesday afternoon. Out west, we will make minor tweaks to the winds to match up with observations and latest model guidance.

Central and Eastern Interior...A shortwave trough moving west through the central Interior this morning will form a convergence zone with flow from the southwest from McGrath to Tanana to Coldfoot.
This will bring widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms and locally heavy rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the rest of the area except mainly dry conditions southeast of Salcha. Another shortwave trough from the east will bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday as well as Tuesday. This pattern looks to hold through much of next week.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Temperatures in the Northwest Arctic Borough will be cooler today as an upper level low begins to drop south over the area. The cooling will spread to the rest of the area on Monday. Gale to near Gale force winds will continue through the Bering Strait through at least Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Interior with mainly dry conditions near the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...An upper level low dropping south from the Arctic will bring colder temperatures west of Nuiqsut while warmer air remains aloft to the east. This setup along with shortwaves moving through the flow from the east will set up an interesting convergence zone from the Central Brooks Range north along the Dalton Highway to Deadhorse. A mix of precipitation is expected in this area, with up to 4 inches of snow below 5000 feet and up to 6 inches above 5000 feet. The best chance for freezing rain near Prudhoe Bay looks to be Monday morning. Conditions remain rather wet on Monday and Tuesday, though precipitation should be mainly rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
After yesterday's near Red Flag conditions, cooler and wetter conditions are expected the next few days with only a few spots in the Yukon Flats reaching the mid 70s for highs.
Thunderstorms will be the main story of the forecast as shortwave trough after shortwave trough make their way in from the east over the next few days. This pattern will remain quite persistent through at least Wednesday. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected today from Nikolai to Manley Hot Springs to Coldfoot and east across the White Mountains and Yukon Flats. Monday, expect widely scattered thunderstorms in the Interior north of Fairbanks and east of Indian Mountain. More widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Yukon Valley and Upper Koyukuk Valley on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-811-851-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.

Black Rock
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Sun -- 12:00 AM AKDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM AKDT     2.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:55 AM AKDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 PM AKDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM AKDT     6.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM AKDT     4.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:39 AM AKDT     8.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:02 PM AKDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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