Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 11:26 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM   Moonset 5:07 PM

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PKZ722 Valdez Arm- 412 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.Mon night - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tue and Tue night - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Wed through Thu - NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Fri - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 030045 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded low south of Kodiak Island this afternoon will weaken overnight. Its occluded front will remain draped over the northern gulf, producing steady rain and easterly winds up to 30 kt across the northern Gulf, weakening by Monday morning. For Kodiak City, an additional 0.6" of rain could fall by Monday afternoon with up to 2" for the northern mountains of Kodiak Island.

Shower activity across interior Southcentral will be less pronounced overnight due to weak upper-level ridging ahead of the upper-level shortwave over the northern Gulf yields breaks in the cloud cover along with slightly warmer temperatures Monday.

By Monday afternoon, another upper-level shortwave rotating around the nearly stationary upper-level low over the Gulf will help to push the occluded front into the Southcentral coast as the shortwave itself moves inland. The result will be a more southeasterly flow aloft that will usher in clouds and moisture in the form of scattered showers. Most of the shower activity will be across the Copper River Basin and along both the coastal mountains and Alaska Range. A few isolated showers will also be possible west of the Chugach and Kenai mountains for the first half of Monday.

Another easterly upper-level shortwave passes over interior Southcentral early Wednesday with widespread shower activity from the Copper River Basin to the Mat-Su Valleys. However, there is still some uncertainty as to the strength and timing of precipitation.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad trough just south of the Alaska Peninsula digs into the Gulf of Alaska Monday as a high pressure ridge builds in over the Bering. This alignment of systems will continue to help produce easterly waves over Southwest tonight through Monday night. A long band of rain showers is currently located over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay, and will continue to move southwest towards the eastern Aleutians into tomorrow morning. To the north of this band of rain near Aniak, an isolated line of thunderstorms is also moving to the southwest towards Bethel and should diminish before midnight. This continued pattern into Tuesday will allow the potential for isolated thunderstorms to take place near the western Alaska Range and Middle Kuskokwim Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening.

As high pressure builds in over the Bering on Monday, an Arctic low is developing in northern Alaska and will dig southwards towards the eastern Bering through the forecast period. Ahead of it, a surge of cold air will push the high pressure ridge south of the Aleutians Monday evening. This cold air mass will help force northerly small craft force winds over much of the central and eastern Bering, while locations near Nunivak Island and south of the eastern Aleutians will experience gale force winds Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation impacts over the Bering will be limited since the low will be surrounded by drier air until it moves further south.

The Arctic low will continue to move southward and eventually enter the eastern Bering by Wednesday afternoon. As it does so, the placement of it and the upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska will create a convergence band of rain over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay Monday night through Tuesday morning. Conditions will be quieter Tuesday and Wednesday, with more scattered showers across southwest and slightly cooler temperature as the Arctic low digs south. Looking ahead, a broad easterly shortwave producing widespread precipitation will begin to move across southern Alaska Wednesday and reach the western Alaska Range by the evening hours.

-BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Thursday through Sunday...

A generally unsettled pattern remains for much of southern Alaska for the beginning of the period as a large upper low sits over the Bering. This feature looks to wobble around and slowly dive southward through the end of the week. Moderate precipitation continues across much of Southcentral on Thursday, heaviest along the coast, gradually ending through Friday.

Models are in good agreement on the upper level pattern amplifying as a shortwave and associated surface low swinging around the base of the Bering upper low strengthens while moving into the Gulf for the weekend. There are still differences in the timing of this system, and consequently also the strength of the ridge over Southcentral ahead of this system on Saturday, with the GFS/GEFS being the strongest and most amplified solution.
Regardless, areas of moderate to locally heavy precipitation are likely, especially along portions of the coast of Southcentral and Alaska Peninsula this weekend. Scattered rain showers look to remain across most of the Aleutians throughout the entire period.

-ME


AVIATION

PANC...Gusty southeasterly winds out the Turnagain Arm will continue this afternoon and into the evening before abating some overnight. Gusty southeast Turnagain Arm winds can be expected again Monday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail throughout the rest of the TAF period.

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Ellamar
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Sun -- 03:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:12 AM AKDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:22 AM AKDT     9.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 PM AKDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:06 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:28 PM AKDT     12.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska, Tide feet

Landlocked Bay
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Sun -- 03:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 04:34 AM AKDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:42 AM AKDT     9.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM AKDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:49 PM AKDT     12.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska, Tide feet

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