Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:44 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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GMZ044 Expires:202405201445;;530541 Fzus52 Kkey 200835 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 435 am edt Mon may 20 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz042>044-201445- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 435 am edt Mon may 20 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 435 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - A frontal boundary currently draped across central florida has helped the wind field across the florida keys become somewhat nebulous this morning. Breezes have begun to shift to the west to northwest in the western waters. By this afternoon, breezes will veer to the northwest and increase. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western north atlantic builds back in across the region.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 200851 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

This morning has felt like summertime in terms of convection across the Florida Keys. Mesoscale boundaries have been the main trigger mechanism for convection, with multiple outflow boundaries still present on radar. KBYX is currently detecting scattered convection within the forecast area, with most of the storms aligning with or being adjacent to the island chain. The strongest activity is currently located near the Upper and Middle Keys.
Good upper- level support has been very evident across most of the region, with radar derived hail hedging close to 2" inches in the waters across the Bahamas and even in a storm that plowed through the distant Straits earlier. The activity closer to home has not been able to fire up as well until just recently, which may be due in part to drier air in the mid- levels sampled by last night's 00Z sounding. The storms that have been able to overcome this drier air have been able to tap into the fat CAPE profiles and have gone nuts. Panning out from the Keys, a trough is extending across the western North Atlantic, dragging a frontal boundary in its wake. This front has made it almost to Central Florida.

A good environment will remain in place for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. Winds will continue to shift to the north ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will continue to usher in lower dew points. Dew points have already dropped roughly 3-5 degrees over the past few hours, which has made quite an impressive difference in the level of comfort when walking outdoors. These lowered dew points and temperatures will keep the Keys below the threshold for Heat Advisories through the remainder of the week. Winds will remain generally from the northwest to north through Tuesday night, briefing becoming variable on Tuesday. Decent moisture will remain in place through Wednesday, which could help spur on mesoscale processes such as cloud lines during this timeframe. Guidance has trended downwards on the higher rain chances through Wednesday, so have capped PoPs at 30%. Forecast rain chances may continue to decrease, depending on how much dry air can invade into the mid-levels. Easterly flow will return by mid-week as high pressure really builds back in, which will allow for dew points to gradually rise back into the mid 70s. As of now, MOS guidance does not hint at any of the oppressive dew points we have been tormented with over the past few days returning through the extended forecast luckily.



MARINE
Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a frontal boundary currently draped across north Central Florida has helped the wind field across the Florida Keys become somewhat nebulous this morning. Breezes have begun to shift to the west to northwest in the western waters. By this afternoon, breezes will veer to the northwest and increase. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Widely scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane in the vicinity of the island chain early this morning.
After sunrise, this activity will diminish with slight rain chances persisting throughout the rest of the day. VCTS is included at both terminals until we expect this activity to die down, though any shower passing over a terminal may result in MVFR CIGs or VIS and will be TEMPO'ed as needed. Near surface winds will start out light of the southwest, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon.

CLIMATE
On this day in 1932, the daily record rainfall of 3.83" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 90 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 30 Marathon 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Sand Key Lighthouse
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Mon -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Channel
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Mon -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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Key West, FL,