Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:52 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMFL 191355 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 955 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

We continue to monitor evolving conditions across South Florida this morning ahead of a potentially active and stormy afternoon. Data from the 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere already primed for convective activity and potentially severe impacts across the immediate East Coast and Lake Okeechobee regions.

With MUCAPE > 5000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches, damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter)
could accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms that could develop after noontime today. At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave will approach the region later today, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with the activity expected this afternoon, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries.

Models have begun to converge on timing for convective initiation sometime around/after 2PM, with activity persisting through sunset. This could allow temperatures to continue to warm up across the CWA, reaching the mid 90s by early afternoon. Heat indices are already climbing this morning, and peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami- Dade and Broward counties for this afternoon. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. Nevertheless, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The mid-lvl ridge which has been positioned over SFL the last couple days will be displaced southeast of the area today as a pronounced shortwave trough shifts southeastward toward the area (along with some lower-amplitude convectively-enhanced perturbations). At the surface, low pressure will develop off the FL/GA coast with a warm but relatively weak southwesterly flow prevailing over SFL, which should help pin the east coast sea breeze near the immediate coast (and perhaps not even progressing inland at all). The encroaching shortwave will result in both cooling mid-lvl temperatures and also increasing mid-lvl W-SWrly flow, which will support an increasingly favorable convective parameter space over portions of SFL this afternoon. Surface temperatures should once again increase well into the 90s which along with seasonably cool 500mb temps (-9/-10C) will result in steep lapse rates through the lower troposphere with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg along with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg progged. As mid-lvl flow increases, 0-6km bulk shear will likely increase to over 40 kts over northern portions of the area this afternoon which would favor organized multi-cell clusters with isolated supercells possible, particularly along any east coast sea breeze where shear will locally be enhanced.

The main questions regarding convective evolution and the overall severe threat will be the presence of increasing synoptic cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave along with the potential evolution/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Even with those question marks, given the aforementioned environment, there exists a (greater than climo) risk of large hail, damaging winds, and potentially even an isolated tornado (mostly dependent upon the sea breeze) with afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances of severe storms look to be over Palm Beach and Broward counties where the most favorable intersection between the increasing forcing, the sea breeze progression, and diurnal timing appears to exist.
This coincides with the latest day 1 outlook from SPC which places a slight risk over northern portions of the east coast, largely driven by the wind and hail risk.

The other concern of the day will be excessive heat as the hot air mass remains in place. It won't quite be as oppressive as yesterday (which basically featured record high heat indices for May) but peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami-Dade and Broward counties, so another heat advisory has been issued for those locations. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. That being said, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.

The weak low will remain over the Atlantic on Monday and a weak frontal boundary will shift southward towards the area. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection overspreads the region, with SHRA/TSRA likely after 15Z. Short-fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites. Winds will remain light and variable this morning, becoming SW at 8-10 kts near noon-time. There is some uncertainty regarding the inland intrusion of the Atlantic sea breeze; at this time, erred on the side of caution with SSE winds at all East Coast sites except KOPF and KTMB after 18Z. Conditions should improve overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mainly benign marine conditions are expected over the period with light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow expected today which will generally shift to the northwest on Monday as a cold front approaches. Scattered to Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 78 91 75 / 60 30 70 50 West Kendall 95 75 93 72 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 77 92 75 / 60 30 70 50 Homestead 94 76 92 74 / 40 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 Pembroke Pines 95 77 93 75 / 70 30 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 90 72 / 70 40 60 50 Boca Raton 93 75 91 74 / 70 40 70 50 Naples 91 76 89 74 / 40 40 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Nassau
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Sun -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:58 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas (2), Tide feet

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