Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:46 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 433 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south to southwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest and increasing to near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North to northeast winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Wednesday - Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, building to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Wednesday night - East winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Thursday - East winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday and Friday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 433 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the florida keys, and breezes have shifted to the south to southwest. Breezes will quickly veer to the north while further decreasing this afternoon as a frontal boundary slides down the florida peninsula. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 191813 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL.

Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms.
At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties through 7PM today.

Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those counties.

The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Frontal boundary will make it's way into the FL Straits on Tuesday into early Wednesday before dissipating. The upper level trough axis will sit east of the area through mid week before finally starting to lift out and height rises work their way into the area. This will result in elevated PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening before shower/storm chances diminish to low end chance for mid week through next weekend, mainly confined to afternoon and early evening diurnally driven sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with highs across the east coast metro in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low to mid 90s over the interior and SW FL. Low temperatures will be closer to climo through mid week ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, before increasing late week into next weekend to the low 70s around the lake and upper 70s near the coasts thanks to the flow becoming more southeasterly.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection develops over the region. Short- fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites where chances for TSRA are highest. SW winds 8-10 kts will prevail across much of South Florida, but the East Coast sea breeze will attempt to work inland, thus included the wind shift for several of the East Coast sites over the next few hours.
Showers will linger overnight with light and variable winds.
Similar conditions will be possible tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as the front pushes through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 92 75 88 / 30 60 40 60 West Kendall 75 94 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 77 93 75 90 / 30 60 40 60 Homestead 76 93 75 89 / 40 50 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 75 87 / 40 60 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 75 88 / 40 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 78 94 75 91 / 30 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 74 90 72 88 / 40 60 40 60 Boca Raton 76 92 73 88 / 40 60 40 60 Naples 78 90 74 90 / 40 40 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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