Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:50 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - W nw winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Mon - W nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - N ne winds 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 4 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - NEarshore, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne in the morning. Offshore, N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne after midnight. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 4 seconds and sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Wed - NEarshore, E winds 5 kt becoming W sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Offshore, E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon becoming nw in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds around 5 kt becoming E late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - E se winds around 5 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds around 5 kt becoming E se late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Fri - SE winds around 5 kt becoming S sw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds around 5 kt becoming se 5 kt late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.

GMZ600 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Primarily a light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Friday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period.

FXUS62 KMFL 191813 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL.

Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms.
At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties through 7PM today.

Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those counties.

The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Frontal boundary will make it's way into the FL Straits on Tuesday into early Wednesday before dissipating. The upper level trough axis will sit east of the area through mid week before finally starting to lift out and height rises work their way into the area. This will result in elevated PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening before shower/storm chances diminish to low end chance for mid week through next weekend, mainly confined to afternoon and early evening diurnally driven sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with highs across the east coast metro in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low to mid 90s over the interior and SW FL. Low temperatures will be closer to climo through mid week ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, before increasing late week into next weekend to the low 70s around the lake and upper 70s near the coasts thanks to the flow becoming more southeasterly.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection develops over the region. Short- fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites where chances for TSRA are highest. SW winds 8-10 kts will prevail across much of South Florida, but the East Coast sea breeze will attempt to work inland, thus included the wind shift for several of the East Coast sites over the next few hours.
Showers will linger overnight with light and variable winds.
Similar conditions will be possible tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as the front pushes through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 92 75 88 / 30 60 40 60 West Kendall 75 94 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 77 93 75 90 / 30 60 40 60 Homestead 76 93 75 89 / 40 50 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 75 87 / 40 60 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 75 88 / 40 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 78 94 75 91 / 30 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 74 90 72 88 / 40 60 40 60 Boca Raton 76 92 73 88 / 40 60 40 60 Naples 78 90 74 90 / 40 40 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Indian Key
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Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Indian Key, Florida, Tide feet

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