Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM

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AMZ069 Atlantic From 27n To 29n W Of 77w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wed - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Wed night - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Thu night - N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Fri night - N to ne winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Sat - E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMLB 201135 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning, primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized.

Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 30 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 50 20 50 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Cape Canaveral
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Canaveral, Florida, Tide feet

Cape Canaveral
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Canaveral, Florida (2), Tide feet

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