Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:29 PM   Moonset 2:41 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1030 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.

GMZ500 1030 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure continues to build into the area allowing for mostly benign marine conditions to start the new workweek. Return flow will spread across the northern gulf of mexico early to midweek and remain in place through the end of the week. At this juncture, winds look to stay at or below 15kts.

FXUS64 KLIX 191527 AAB AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1027 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A warm day is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast today.
Temperatures will be the main story with a weak northerly flow across the region. This will allow the typically "cooler" coastal locations to warm just a bit more with little influence from the adjacent shelf waters, which SSTs are roughly in the middle and upper 70s. Looking at the ongoing forecast no changes for this midpoint update. Just beyond the near term, went ahead and added some patchy fog for early Monday morning again given that strong radiative processes and moist soils may contribute to the development of some shallow fog around or just prior to sunrise.
(Frye)

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

After a good soaking along with some severe wx, we are ready for a break. A back door trough will be moving through today, this can actually be seen in radar returns this morning just to the NE of the area. We are calling this a trough since there is only weak air mass change, and the only change is found in PW values as they drop from around 1.4" this morning to around 1" by this afternoon. This won't stay around too long and we will be back to return flow Monday.
The only thing of concern will be fog this morning as the boundary moving in and conditions ahead of this boundary are ripe for radiation fog. There is only one variable that is not wanting to play along and that is a northerly wind that is supposed to be all the way to the coast by daylight today. The wind is not strong, but since it is bring a degree or two drop in dew pts, there is concern that fog will not form until right at sunrise(sunrise surprise). This is by far the hardest fog to fcast, but if this looks to be the case just before sunrise, we will bring up a dense fog advisory for inland areas south of the boundary. Since this boundary will be at the coast tonight, fog should not be an issue tonight(famous last words).

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and humid will be back for the next several days but then again it is the start of summer, so these conditions are not unusual. The only thing concerning concerning weather will be by the end of the week. But these MCS features look to stay to the north of the area by late Thu into Fri. It is possible that some of this could make its way to central LA/MS. But as far as it getting here, this does not look to be the case at the moment.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Some inland terminals could see very short duration IFR due to vis this morning around sunrise, but the remainder of this cycle should be VFR.

MARINE
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storms will slowly move south and east and dissipate today from the outer waters. Easterly and westerly winds across the frontal boundary will also become southerly to start the new work week.
Southerly winds will remain the common theme for the rest of the week and no other systems are expected to impact the coastal waters through the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 87 65 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 91 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 89 73 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 90 69 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:44 PM CDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Sun -- 03:40 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:57 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:24 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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