Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:31 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 930 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Overnight - South winds around 5 knots, becoming west late. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

GMZ500 930 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure continues to build into the area allowing for mostly benign marine conditions to start the new workweek. Return flow will spread across the northern gulf of mexico early to midweek and remain in place through the end of the week. Winds are forecast to stay at or below 15kts.

FXUS64 KLIX 200440 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1140 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally a quite pattern has evolved for our local CWFA. Aloft, a dry northwesterly flow around the eastern periphery of a 594dam high over Mexico will remain across our region through the short term period. At the surface a high pressure will continue to rule the overall surface pattern with light and variable winds. Skies should remain on the clear side. This could again generate some shallow radiation fog tonight with calm winds and clear skies.
SREF guidance is pinging the best potential along the Atchafalaya late tonight or around sunrise on Monday. Kept patchy fog in the grids for now. This should lift pretty rapidly after sunrise. The main story here will be temperatures. As high pressure begins to move east a weak onshore flow will initiate allowing temperatures to be slightly cooler right along the immediate coast...at least cooler than today with a weak northerly flow over our region limiting impacts from the cooler shelf waters. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Tuesday the southerly return flow will be more noticeable. Again, this should moderate temperatures right along the immediate coast with the interaction of the cooler SSTs. However, inland will be a few degrees warmer with most locations ending up in the upper 80s or even perhaps lower 90s. Aloft, the upper ridge mentioned in the short term portion will spread northeast toward the Rio Grande Valley. There will be upper level ridging along the Texas coast and spreading into our region, however, the heights are just a bit lower than previously advertised so temps were knocked down a degree or two from previous higher forecasts. That said, it will still be a warm week ahead with temperatures warming into the middle and upper 80s each day with perhaps the warmer locations such as Baton Rouge reaching the 90F mark each afternoon.

By Thursday a weak frontal boundary tries to move southward but stalls to our north across the midsouth region. There will be an upper level impulse overhead and with a more rich boundary layer from a few days of return flow. Think the rain chances will be nonzero, especially across interior southwest MS closer to the front and best upper level dynamics. But largely most of the region appears to be dry with the best QPF signal along and north of the I20 corridor. Going into late week and into the weekend a warming trend is progged by the guidance as upper level heights again try to increase with the upper high strengthening to around 595dam over Deep South Texas. If this does, indeed, occur many across our forecast area will see their warmest temperatures of the season late this week and especially into the next weekend.
(Frye)

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don't see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight.
These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening.
Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions s hould improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren't expected to provide any significant restrictions either.



MARINE
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure will continue to build into the region early this week. This will lead to favorable marine conditions through the forecast period. High pressure will begin to exit the region allowing for southerly winds to take shape, but winds should remain at and mostly below 15kts through the week. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 73 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:44 PM CDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Long Point
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Sun -- 03:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM CDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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