Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 4:18 PM   Moonset 3:31 AM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System-western Choctawhatchee Bay- Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - West winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday night - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Primarily a light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Friday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period.

FXUS64 KMOB 192303 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday, with the exception of possible late night fog. Winds become light and variable by early this evening, then an east to southeast flow at 5 to 10 knots is expected on Monday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 329 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast.
Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up on Monday. Skies should be mostly clear tonight, and then partly cloudy on Monday. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight, expect for near the coast where a light offshore flow may persist.
Primarily light easterly winds across most of the area on Monday, but with a slightly stronger onshore flow along the coast during the afternoon hours.

Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures Monday primarily be in the upper 80s for most locations, with a few lower 90s possible over interior southeast Mississippi and in the mid 80s along the immediate coast. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An eastward tilted upper level ridge has moved over the Mississippi River, with an upper level trough off the East Coast. Shortwave energy is directed south over the Southeast through the Short Term in response to this configuration, but with a drier airmass moving over the region, no rain is expected. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected, with mid 80s to around 90 expected for high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected over most of the forecast area through the period, except for low 60s over northeastern-most portions of the forecast area.

Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a low risk of rip currents into mid week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

By Thursday, the upper ridge has shifted east a bit. It then flattens Friday into Saturday, as an upper level shortwave trough approaches and moves over the Southeast. A surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of Mexico mid week on, with organized southerly flow moving Gulf moisture inland. Guidance is becoming more consistent with the amount and placement of the moisture return. The latest guidance is placing the better moisture further north over the Southeast, and with that, keeping better PoPs for Friday and Saturday generally north of Highway 84. Have a bit better confidence with this more consistent pattern. Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms through the Extended.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Primarily light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Thursday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 66 88 67 88 68 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 85 69 84 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 85 70 84 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 87 63 88 64 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 89 64 90 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 64 86 63 88 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 64 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:39 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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