Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 4:13 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405200915;;500578 Fzus54 Kmob 192056 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 356 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-200915- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 356 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - West winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday night - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 356 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Primarily a light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Friday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period.

FXUS62 KTAE 191937 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 337 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon.
Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected.
Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid- level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Low pressure is currently sliding to southeast GA with cumulus clouds gliding over the region. Cigs have been bouncing between MVFR and VFR for the past few hours and will likely continue for at least KABY and KVLD. As we move into the evening hours, the clouds should dissipate leaving much of the region with VFR conditions overnight. Guidance suggests MVFR to IFR cigs possible from about KABY to KTLH and east of that line. Added lowered cigs from about 9Z to 14Z but this may need to be adjusted at the next TAF cycle. Confidence is highest at KABY and KVLD in this happening. Once the sunrise tomorrow, VFR conditions return.

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

West winds tonight will clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure builds into the waters. This will lead to a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 86 65 88 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 68 87 68 86 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 65 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 84 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 85 63 87 / 20 10 0 10 Cross City 66 86 62 88 / 20 30 10 20 Apalachicola 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM CDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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