Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Luis, AZ
May 19, 2024 6:07 PM PDT (01:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 4:12 PM Moonset 3:21 AM |
FXUS65 KPSR 200012 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 512 PM MST Sun May 19 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures this week will be near normal as a couple weather systems pass through the region, but mainly to the north of our area. These systems will lead to breezy to windy conditions during the afternoon and evening hours, with the highest winds and greatest impacts expected on Monday. There is a slight chance for some virga and/or sprinkles in south-central AZ tomorrow afternoon, otherwise dry conditions continue into next week.
DISCUSSION
Analysis of upper-level water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a closed low off the coast of southern California along with a trough digging to the southeast in the Pacific NW. Ahead of these systems, wind gusts this afternoon and early evening are expected to easily reach into the mid 20s areawide to 30-35 mph across portions of southeast California. These winds combined with low humidity will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. The aforementioned closed low will move on shore during the overnight hours and get swept up in the aforementioned trough as it continues to dig to the SE. This system will bring a cold front to the area tomorrow, knocking afternoon temperatures down to near normal (about 5 degrees cooler than today's forecasted high temperatures). Moisture will be limited, but some virga and/or sprinkles will be possible in south-central Arizona during the early afternoon as the cold front moves through. Winds will be the main concern tomorrow afternoon and early evening and will likely reach 25-35 mph across south-central Arizona and 30-45 mph across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley. Winds may briefly gust up around 40 mph in south-central AZ along the front as it moves through in the early afternoon. These winds combined with the low humidity will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Broad troughing over Western CONUS will persist through next weekend along with a few shortwaves sliding to our north throughout the week. This will help keep temperatures right around or even slightly below normal heading into Memorial Day Weekend. Aside from the slight chance of some virga and/or sprinkles tomorrow afternoon, dry conditions will continue through next weekend. Global ensemble models are in fairly good agreement that heights aloft will return to zonal flow and then start to rise early next week. This will allow for another warming trend and push temperatures back above normal.
AVIATION
Updated at 0010Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Wind directions will follow their typical diurnal tendencies through at least early tomorrow morning, with SW gusts into the upper teens to around 20 kt through the next several hours. The typical SE switch is expected to take hold by 08-10Z at KPHX, KIWA, and KDVT. Late tomorrow morning, winds will switch out of the SW sooner than usual before increasing and developing gusts into the mid 20s by the afternoon. Overnight, mid and high level clouds will begin to fill in over the region, with bases reaching their lowest around midday tomorrow at around 12 kft. Confidence is moderate in virga showers passing over the terminals during the early afternoon (coinciding with the lowest cloud bases) ahead of a front. Anticipate the front to pass over the terminals sometime between 21-23Z and temporarily bring gusts upwards of 30 kts out of the SSW-SW.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The primary aviation weather concern through the next 24 hours will be gust SW to W winds. Directions will favor WSW at KIPL and SW to S at KBLH through the period, with gusts eventually ceasing this evening/overnight before picking up again tomorrow morning.
Gusts will peak tomorrow afternoon between 30-35 kt at both terminals, and with the stronger winds, reductions in visibility from lofted dust will be possible. Expect FEW-SCT and at times BKN clouds mostly aoa 20 kft overnight into tomorrow morning.
FIRE WEATHER
A cold front will move through the region tomorrow knocking temperatures down to near or slightly below normal along with brining strong, gusty winds to the region. While some virga/sprinkles will be possible in south-central Arizona, there is no chance for wetting rain with this cold front. Throughout the week, MinRH will be in the single digits for lower elevations and in the teens across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair and in the 20-40% range. Wind speeds will be the highest on Monday with widespread gusts as high as 30-35 mph. This combined with the low RH and dry fine fuels will lead to near critical thresholds. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. For the remainder of the week, afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range, which will lead to slightly elevated fire danger.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 512 PM MST Sun May 19 2024
UPDATE
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures this week will be near normal as a couple weather systems pass through the region, but mainly to the north of our area. These systems will lead to breezy to windy conditions during the afternoon and evening hours, with the highest winds and greatest impacts expected on Monday. There is a slight chance for some virga and/or sprinkles in south-central AZ tomorrow afternoon, otherwise dry conditions continue into next week.
DISCUSSION
Analysis of upper-level water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a closed low off the coast of southern California along with a trough digging to the southeast in the Pacific NW. Ahead of these systems, wind gusts this afternoon and early evening are expected to easily reach into the mid 20s areawide to 30-35 mph across portions of southeast California. These winds combined with low humidity will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. The aforementioned closed low will move on shore during the overnight hours and get swept up in the aforementioned trough as it continues to dig to the SE. This system will bring a cold front to the area tomorrow, knocking afternoon temperatures down to near normal (about 5 degrees cooler than today's forecasted high temperatures). Moisture will be limited, but some virga and/or sprinkles will be possible in south-central Arizona during the early afternoon as the cold front moves through. Winds will be the main concern tomorrow afternoon and early evening and will likely reach 25-35 mph across south-central Arizona and 30-45 mph across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley. Winds may briefly gust up around 40 mph in south-central AZ along the front as it moves through in the early afternoon. These winds combined with the low humidity will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Broad troughing over Western CONUS will persist through next weekend along with a few shortwaves sliding to our north throughout the week. This will help keep temperatures right around or even slightly below normal heading into Memorial Day Weekend. Aside from the slight chance of some virga and/or sprinkles tomorrow afternoon, dry conditions will continue through next weekend. Global ensemble models are in fairly good agreement that heights aloft will return to zonal flow and then start to rise early next week. This will allow for another warming trend and push temperatures back above normal.
AVIATION
Updated at 0010Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Wind directions will follow their typical diurnal tendencies through at least early tomorrow morning, with SW gusts into the upper teens to around 20 kt through the next several hours. The typical SE switch is expected to take hold by 08-10Z at KPHX, KIWA, and KDVT. Late tomorrow morning, winds will switch out of the SW sooner than usual before increasing and developing gusts into the mid 20s by the afternoon. Overnight, mid and high level clouds will begin to fill in over the region, with bases reaching their lowest around midday tomorrow at around 12 kft. Confidence is moderate in virga showers passing over the terminals during the early afternoon (coinciding with the lowest cloud bases) ahead of a front. Anticipate the front to pass over the terminals sometime between 21-23Z and temporarily bring gusts upwards of 30 kts out of the SSW-SW.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The primary aviation weather concern through the next 24 hours will be gust SW to W winds. Directions will favor WSW at KIPL and SW to S at KBLH through the period, with gusts eventually ceasing this evening/overnight before picking up again tomorrow morning.
Gusts will peak tomorrow afternoon between 30-35 kt at both terminals, and with the stronger winds, reductions in visibility from lofted dust will be possible. Expect FEW-SCT and at times BKN clouds mostly aoa 20 kft overnight into tomorrow morning.
FIRE WEATHER
A cold front will move through the region tomorrow knocking temperatures down to near or slightly below normal along with brining strong, gusty winds to the region. While some virga/sprinkles will be possible in south-central Arizona, there is no chance for wetting rain with this cold front. Throughout the week, MinRH will be in the single digits for lower elevations and in the teens across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair and in the 20-40% range. Wind speeds will be the highest on Monday with widespread gusts as high as 30-35 mph. This combined with the low RH and dry fine fuels will lead to near critical thresholds. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. For the remainder of the week, afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range, which will lead to slightly elevated fire danger.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
El Golfo de Santa Clara
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM MST 1.95 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:20 AM MST Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM MST Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM MST -2.29 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 12:35 PM MST 2.16 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM MST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 PM MST -1.82 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM MST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM MST 1.95 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:20 AM MST Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM MST Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM MST -2.29 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 12:35 PM MST 2.16 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM MST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 PM MST -1.82 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM MST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -1 |
| 5 am |
| -1.8 |
| 6 am |
| -2.3 |
| 7 am |
| -2.2 |
| 8 am |
| -1.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
San Felipe
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:49 AM PDT 3.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM PDT 0.08 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:19 PM PDT 4.02 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:20 PM PDT 0.45 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:49 AM PDT 3.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM PDT 0.08 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:19 PM PDT 4.02 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:20 PM PDT 0.45 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 4 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Yuma, AZ,
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