Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 4:29 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 191727 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1227 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 948 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No significant changes were made in this morning's update. A high pressure ridge is expected to continue to build into the Lower MS Valley through this afternoon. Deep N/NW flow will allow for drier air to continue to infiltrate the region. This will also enable efficient daytime heating, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Mostly clear skies with a weak northerly wind will prevail through the afternoon. /AJ/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today and Tonight:

Patchy, dense fog development will be possible in eastern portions of the CWA during early morning hours but is expected to dissipate after sunrise. A quiet, dry, and sunny day is expected across the ArkLaMiss region as an upper/mid level ridge migrate towards the area from the southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees to help make for a very warm day.
Clear skies and quiet conditions will continue into the evening with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees in the Delta region. Fog development may be possible towards the southern area closer to daybreak on Monday. /SW/

Monday through Saturday: Much of the long range forecast for our area will feature rather hot days, with dry weather early in the week giving way to the potential for stormier conditions by mid to late week. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures approaching 20 deg C in the global models, it wouldn't be surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some point.
Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a big concern.

As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave trough moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress the ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region. This will likely increase thunderstorm chances for northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, where increased mid level flow could help to organize potential storms resulting in increased potential for strong to severe storms. As of now, the severe threat only grazes the upper ArkLaMiss region, and it is likely that the anticyclone will delay storm impacts for most of the area, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe weather in the graphics until confidence increases. /EC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable winds are expected. /AJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 66 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 63 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 66 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 66 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 68 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 67 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Jackson/Brandon, MS,