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FXUS64 KJAN 200549 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Satellite imagery showed a few high clouds from convection over the Plains that may spread into our CWA prior to sunrise. Surface analysis had high pressure centered east of our CWA that will provide a light return flow by sunrise. Together these features will hold morning lows a couple of degrees warmer than normal.
Forecast needed no changes with this update. /22/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The rest of today through tomorrow...

A building surface ridge will continue to intensify today and Monday, allowing for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through the overnight, but become light and N/NW by Monday.
Overnight, lingering moisture, light winds, and clear skies may trigger patchy fog development in the Pine Belt in the early morning, but confidence is low at the moment. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s. Monday is expected to remain clear and dry as surface ridging continues. I hope everyone has a wonderful end to their weekend! /AJ/

Next week-early next weekend (Tuesday-next Saturday)...

Early-midweek (Tuesday-Wednesday): As the mid-level ridge amplifies over the Bay of Campeche & Mexico, the low-level ridge axis is progged to build across the area through mid-week. Sfc high pressure will build through, while an active upper level jet ejects across the Mid West. This will drive a strong low pressure system into the Mid West to Great Lakes. A dry pattern will persist through midweek, with increased warm advection/low-level temps into the mid-upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect seasonably warm highs in the upper 80s-low 90s & lows in the upper 60s southeast of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Leaned towards MOS consensus for lows both Tuesday & Wednesday mornings as sfc/mid-level ridge axis & light winds should help more efficient cooling occur, especially southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor.
Heat stress won't be a concern but increased humidity will aid in heat indices climbing into low-mid 90s. Ridging should deflect most storm chances off to the northwest through Wednesday evening, while some could sneak into the ArkLaMiss Delta during that time.

Late week-early next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): As the trough swings into the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay, ridge will relax & gradual height falls will occur as a result across the Gulf Coast.
This keep continued seasonably warm heat & humidity in the upper 80s to low 90s late week to low-mid 90s into next weekend. There will be an uptick in scattered rain & storm coverage & westerly zonal flow for some strong-severe convective potential late week & into the weekend. Indications remain in long term convective outlooks & CSU machine learning probs for isolated strong-severe potential during this time, but depends on how quickly the subtropical ridge relaxes.
Trends have slowed so confidence isn't high enough to add anything to the HWO graphics at this time. /DC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning near GTR, HBG, and PIB and this may result in brief visibility reduction. Winds will be light and variable. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 89 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 89 66 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 90 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 90 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 90 70 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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