Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 4:17 PM   Moonset 3:27 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 191627 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1127 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Today will begin a tranquil period of weather for Central Alabama and the Southeast, as the main upper shortwave continues to exit off to the east. Lower clouds and fog are mixing out as of mid morning, which will set the stage for a warm afternoon as highs top out in the 80s areawide. Lower 80s can be expected across the east with a bit more cloud cover closer to the surface low/shortwave in Georgia, while upper 80s will be observed in the western counties. We still can't rule out an isolated shower or storm across the far east, with lingering moisture rotating around the west side of the low pressure center near Macon, Georgia. Otherwise, we'll remain dry through the afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with some patchy fog possible in sheltered valleys and near major river basins. Warm temperatures return once again on Monday but maybe not quite as warm as previously expected. Easterly flow is expected to push into Alabama, with a surface ridge centered over the east coast and Mid-Atlantic states. It won't be much, but we may be a degree or two cooler in the east, but near 90 degrees across the west.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

A drier and warm pattern continues through much of next week as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf through the Ohio River Valley and into New England. A weak front will drip into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, as a low rotates near Hudson Bay. The front stalls before reaching Central Alabama, but showers and storms could make it as far south as the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon.
Friday, convection expands southward in response to a southern stream shortwave riding along the surface front, and moving eastward through the region. Given uncertainty in timing and weak shear fields, will hold off on any mention of strong to severe storms at this time.

14

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon following the lower stratus from this morning. Clear skies will prevail tonight with mainly calm winds. Patchy fog development is possible, but confidence is too low to mention vis restrictions just yet.
Prevailing winds will be from the north this afternoon, becoming easterly to southeasterly during the day on Monday.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Fog and low clouds remain scattered across Central Alabama this morning. These should improve shortly after sunrise. Conditions today will be warmer and drier overall, with northerly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph. Isolated showers or storms are possible this afternoon east of I-65. We'll remain warm and dry tomorrow with an easterly to southeasterly 20 ft wind at around 5 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 84 61 86 59 / 10 10 0 0 Anniston 83 62 86 62 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 65 87 64 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 87 65 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 65 86 64 / 10 10 0 0 Auburn 82 64 84 64 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 85 65 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 84 64 85 62 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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