Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:56 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 200355 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1055 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight Through Monday Night/

Hot, breezy, and humid weather will continue to start the week with a mid level ridge in place and strong low level southerly flow. A 40 knot low level jet will send stratus northward overnight, reaching portions of Central Texas before sunrise.
These low clouds will not last long once the sun comes up and boundary layer mixing begins.

After a warm and breezy night with lows mainly in the 70s, temperatures Monday will steadily warm into the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Dew points will mix out a bit, but afternoon heat index values will still exceed the actual temperature by a few degrees.
The only thing that will help with the afternoon heat will be a very breezy south wind between 10 and 20 mph with occasional gusts as high as 30 mph. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset, but it will still be a bit breezy, warm, and humid Monday night with lows in the lower and middle 70s.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern overnight will be the arrival of low end MVFR to IFR stratus across Central Texas due to a 40 knot low level jet. These low clouds should arrive around 11Z in Waco and last through at least mid morning. Ceiling heights will hover around 1000 ft but may briefly fall to 800 ft around sunrise. Much like the past several days, the stratus will mix out before reaching D10. Outside of these low clouds, VFR conditions will prevail through Monday night with a few daytime Cu and few to scattered high clouds.

A south wind will prevail through Monday night at sustained speeds between 12 and 18 knots along with some gusts exceeding 25 knots.

79

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 5 10 Waco 71 89 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 69 89 71 87 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 Denton 73 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 72 89 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 74 92 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 70 91 72 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 71 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 70 89 73 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 71 92 74 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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