Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:59 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 191045 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

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Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to limit fog production.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 332 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ /Monday through Saturday/

The work week will start out hot, rain-free, and humid due to low level warm advection and ridging aloft. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from the upper 80s in the east to the middle 90s in the west. Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The upper ridge axis will shift to the east Tuesday in response to a trough approaching from the west. Although large scale forcing for ascent will gradually increase, it will likely not be strong enough to eliminate a cap of warm air aloft. Therefore, no measurable rainfall or thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, but a few storms developing along and just ahead of an approaching cold front may manage to cross the Red River Tuesday night. Storm chances will increase Wednesday when the front moves into North Texas and a shortwave moves quickly through southwest flow aloft.
The front is progged to move a bit farther south Wednesday night, but it may get a push farther south depending on the extent of cool convective outflows that may develop during the day. Lift along the front and passage of additional shortwaves will warrant chance PoPs Wednesday night with slightly higher PoPs Thursday due to the arrival of stronger shortwave energy and the return of the front back to the north. It is difficult to say exactly where and how much rain will fall, but the setup has the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall which may result in some flooding.
Instability and wind shear are also progged to be sufficient for some strong to severe storms, especially Thursday afternoon.
Rain/storm chances will temporarily end on Friday but the passage of additional shortwaves embedded in southwest flow may spark a few storms Friday night.

Temperatures the second half of the week will be slightly cooler due to more clouds, showers/storms, and the brief appearance of the cold front. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be generally in the 80s to around 90. Lows Wednesday night will range from the middle 60s near the Red River to the lower 70s across Central Texas. A slight warmup is expected Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s and lows from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Stratus has developed as expected and will reach Waco before TAF issuance. Ceilings will temporarily lower below 1000 ft through sunrise, but will lift and scatter by mid/late morning. Some brief visibility restrictions between 3 and 6 miles will also accompany the low clouds. Only remnants of these low clouds will reach D10 later this morning with VFR conditions expected through Monday morning.

A southeast to south wind will prevail through Monday morning.
Wind speeds around or below 10 knots this morning will increase between 10 and 16 knots this afternoon along with some higher gusts.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 73 91 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 88 69 88 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 89 69 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 91 71 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 89 71 88 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 92 73 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 89 69 88 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 91 71 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 88 69 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 71 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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