Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Texarkana, TX
May 19, 2024 2:04 PM CDT (19:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:48 PM Moonset 2:56 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 191745 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Bumped a handful of high temps up a degree or two.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Very light wind this morning is starting to pick up a little speed, but so far the near calm air is warming at fast pace. So with this update, we have gone with some mid 90s along I-49 with both SHV and TXK at 88 degrees. The cu field spreading out, but is well up there 4-6kft and much more prolific west of I-49. Water vapor is showing the upper ridge axis over LA and S AR with a short wave nudging into the TX/OK panhandles. This will force the ridge to the E/NE with today seeing loads of sunshine and perhaps some of the warmest temps since late last summer. /24/
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The large scale pattern to begin the long term period will feature a fairly high amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a large scale trough over the Western US and large scale (relatively) ridging over the Eastern US. An impulse will eject out of the large scale Western US trough into the Central Plains Monday night, enhancing lee cyclogenesis across the OK panhandle, with this sfc cyclone then moving into Kansas Tuesday morning.
This will begin to push sfc high pressure across the ArkLaTex eastward, with an increasing pressure gradient and enhanced southerly flow from the GOM northward across E TX. Low cloud cover is expected over a good portion of western zones Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridge influence then looks to remain strong enough to make for another hot and partly to mostly sunny day with high temps again in the low to mid 90. Dewpoints will begin to creep towards 70 degrees, so it will begin to feel a bit muggier. The ridge axis will be slowly shifting east of the area late in the day as an upper level low deepens and closes over the Upper MS Valley and the Western US trough progresses eastward into the Plains.
As both the upper level and sfc lows over the Upper MS Valley deepen substantially Tuesday night into Wednesday, convection will develop along the associated frontal boundaries, the cold frontal portion of which will extend S/SW into AR and N TX. Convection along the front in our neck of the woods is likely to be enhanced by additional short wave perturbations, so expect rain and storm chances to return to far northern zones late Tuesday into Wednesday. SPC has clipped far northern zones in a marginal risk for severe weather.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will dampen, leaving its influence south and east of the area, with the upper level flow turning more quasi-zonal to SW. The frontal boundary will slowly sink towards the LA/AR border and despite the best dynamics from the parent system being displaced well to the north across the Great Lakes, shortwaves within the weakly-oriented SW flow will fire convection across the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. While not outlooked by SPC on Wednesday, given dewpoints around 70 or into the low 70s and the boundary in the CWA, a few strong to severe storms certainly appear possible, esp given model projected mean layer instability in the 1000-2000J/kg range.
Wednesday night into Thursday, this boundary is likely to either remain stationary or gently shift northward. With an unstable environment encompassing just about the entire CWA on Thursday, the threat for severe weather will exist, especially as another shortwave looks to pass overtop the boundary carry the boundary back into/across the area. SPC currently has the area outlooked and will watch this closely over the next few days.
The boundary and the shortwave will then pass to the east on Friday, with little to essentially no change in airmass and additional shortwaves passing across the area. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon and evening, more diurnally driven than previous days. The same story appears likely for Saturday before general ensemble consensus leans towards the rebuilding of the upper level ridge. High temps look hot to end the forecast period, in the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 or in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices near or just above 100 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
For the 19/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through the period with just some fair weather cumulus averaging around 5Kft this afternoon. Mostly SKC conditions are expected overnight with a few instances of patchy fog possible, but aviation impacts are not likely. Otherwise, light E/SE winds will persist around 5 kts or less today and tonight, increasing from the S/SE on Monday to between 6-12 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 67 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 69 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Bumped a handful of high temps up a degree or two.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Very light wind this morning is starting to pick up a little speed, but so far the near calm air is warming at fast pace. So with this update, we have gone with some mid 90s along I-49 with both SHV and TXK at 88 degrees. The cu field spreading out, but is well up there 4-6kft and much more prolific west of I-49. Water vapor is showing the upper ridge axis over LA and S AR with a short wave nudging into the TX/OK panhandles. This will force the ridge to the E/NE with today seeing loads of sunshine and perhaps some of the warmest temps since late last summer. /24/
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The large scale pattern to begin the long term period will feature a fairly high amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a large scale trough over the Western US and large scale (relatively) ridging over the Eastern US. An impulse will eject out of the large scale Western US trough into the Central Plains Monday night, enhancing lee cyclogenesis across the OK panhandle, with this sfc cyclone then moving into Kansas Tuesday morning.
This will begin to push sfc high pressure across the ArkLaTex eastward, with an increasing pressure gradient and enhanced southerly flow from the GOM northward across E TX. Low cloud cover is expected over a good portion of western zones Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridge influence then looks to remain strong enough to make for another hot and partly to mostly sunny day with high temps again in the low to mid 90. Dewpoints will begin to creep towards 70 degrees, so it will begin to feel a bit muggier. The ridge axis will be slowly shifting east of the area late in the day as an upper level low deepens and closes over the Upper MS Valley and the Western US trough progresses eastward into the Plains.
As both the upper level and sfc lows over the Upper MS Valley deepen substantially Tuesday night into Wednesday, convection will develop along the associated frontal boundaries, the cold frontal portion of which will extend S/SW into AR and N TX. Convection along the front in our neck of the woods is likely to be enhanced by additional short wave perturbations, so expect rain and storm chances to return to far northern zones late Tuesday into Wednesday. SPC has clipped far northern zones in a marginal risk for severe weather.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will dampen, leaving its influence south and east of the area, with the upper level flow turning more quasi-zonal to SW. The frontal boundary will slowly sink towards the LA/AR border and despite the best dynamics from the parent system being displaced well to the north across the Great Lakes, shortwaves within the weakly-oriented SW flow will fire convection across the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. While not outlooked by SPC on Wednesday, given dewpoints around 70 or into the low 70s and the boundary in the CWA, a few strong to severe storms certainly appear possible, esp given model projected mean layer instability in the 1000-2000J/kg range.
Wednesday night into Thursday, this boundary is likely to either remain stationary or gently shift northward. With an unstable environment encompassing just about the entire CWA on Thursday, the threat for severe weather will exist, especially as another shortwave looks to pass overtop the boundary carry the boundary back into/across the area. SPC currently has the area outlooked and will watch this closely over the next few days.
The boundary and the shortwave will then pass to the east on Friday, with little to essentially no change in airmass and additional shortwaves passing across the area. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon and evening, more diurnally driven than previous days. The same story appears likely for Saturday before general ensemble consensus leans towards the rebuilding of the upper level ridge. High temps look hot to end the forecast period, in the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 or in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices near or just above 100 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
For the 19/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through the period with just some fair weather cumulus averaging around 5Kft this afternoon. Mostly SKC conditions are expected overnight with a few instances of patchy fog possible, but aviation impacts are not likely. Otherwise, light E/SE winds will persist around 5 kts or less today and tonight, increasing from the S/SE on Monday to between 6-12 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 67 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 69 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTXK TEXARKANA RGNLWEBB FIELD,AR | 5 sm | 71 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 90°F | 64°F | 43% | 29.99 |
Shreveport, LA,
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