Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:55 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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FXUS62 KCAE 191842 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 242 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Fair and dry weather expected early this week with warming temperatures through the week under high pressure. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level low and associated weak area of low pressure at the surface is located over eastern Georgia as of mid- afternoon. Meanwhile, the backdoor cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning continues to push south of the area. Northeasterly winds are in place at the surface across the area behind the front, with abundant moisture trapped beneath an inversion that extends up to around 2500 ft. This has resulted in overcast skies.

Other than some lingering showers across far southern Burke County, the potential for any additional showers or thunderstorms has come to an end across the area as drier/more stable air advects into the region. The extensive cloud cover will likely persist into late this evening, before clouds begin to scatter out some into the overnight hours. Temperatures tonight should be near normal, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Fair and dry weather expected early this week as the upper trough continues to shift further offshore and upper ridging builds eastward from the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the east coast. Surface high pressure will be centered from New England down the east coast on Monday before shifting slightly further east on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over the Central Plains lifting into the upper Midwest.

Atmospheric moisture will be limited with PWATs around 70-80 percent of normal. This should yield nice weather with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the lower to mid 80s and in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine each day. Overnight lows expected to be near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity should be a bit lower as well with deep mixing and dewpoints falling into the 50s each afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Little change in the overall forecast thinking for the extended forecast period. The upper ridge axis should shift east of the forecast area Wednesday as a positively tilted upper trough moves into the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will also shift offshore allowing for more southerly flow across the region. This will allow PWATs to slowly increase with a stronger increase on Thursday with ensembles showing PWATs rising to around 110-120 percent of normal. Forecast soundings indicate a prominent inversion around 850mb-700mb both Wednesday and Thursday and without any upper forcing, this should prevent much convection across the forecast area.

Friday through the weekend the weather becomes a bit more unsettled as the upper ridge flattens, giving way to more westerly 500mb flow and a series of shortwaves move into the region and a frontal boundary stalls near the region. 60-70 percent of ensemble members show probabilities of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg each day. It is too far out to have confidence in timing of shortwaves or assess a true severe threat, but the threat of thunderstorms seems high with active weather expected into the weekend. Temperatures will show a continued warming trend on Wednesday into Thursday under the influence of the upper ridging with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows also trending warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
Increased cloud cover and potential precipitation leads to more uncertainty and higher spreads in the temperature guidance for the weekend but fairly confident temperatures should remain above normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ceiling restrictions will likely persist into the late afternoon/early evening hours, with VFR for the remainder of the forecast period.

Abundant moisture, within a northeasterly low level flow, remains trapped beneath an inversion. This has resulted in MVFR ceilings at all terminals this afternoon. The inversion will begin to lift late this afternoon, causing ceilings to rise to VFR levels around 20Z at the Augusta area terminals and 23Z at the Orangeburg and Columbia area terminals. Then, drier air will begin working its way into the area, scattering out any ceilings by late evening at all terminals. VFR ceilings could return to the area during the morning on Monday.

Winds will remain from the northeast at 5-10 kt through the remainder of the afternoon, before become light northeast or variable this evening and overnight. Winds will increase once again to 5-10 kt from the northeast Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated Monday through Wednesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:32 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
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Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:39 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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