Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:45 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 313 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Through 7 pm - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ200 313 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure with accompanying dry weather will build into the area tonight and Monday, then linger for much of the week.

FXUS62 KILM 191729 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures today. Drier air will then move into the area to start off the work week. Warmer temperatures will return mid week with wetter weather expected late week.

UPDATE
Little in the way of adjustment was made to the forecast this update. Looking like a dreary and cool day over the area with abundant low clouds that could linger much of the day. Best chance for showers and storms looks to be southern areas, nearer the boundary, but stratus field pushing south may limit this potential as the day goes on.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low level convergence along a stalled boundary is maintaining scattered shallow showers across the Pee Dee region and into southeast NC. Training has been minimal thus far, with only localized area of 1+ inches in the last couple hours over Dillon county. The boundary will continue to sag southward, and with it the "line" of showers. A positively tilted 500mb trough across the East Coast, with base currently moving across northern GA, will shift eastward during the day leading to PVA across SC and some NVA for NC. Focus for rain chances will shift to southern parts of our area (Williamsburg and Georgetown counties in particular) from late morning into the afternoon with isolated thunder possible.

Behind the southward moving boundary, CAA in northerly flow is leading to widespread low stratus, which have already moved into our northern counties. This stratus in a pseudo-wedge pattern with high pressure to the north will persist for most of today maintaining overcast conditions until at least mid-afternoon. Thus high temps today are well below normal in the low 70s. There is a chance for a warmer than expected temps, mainly inland and northern areas, if the widespread stratus breaks apart sooner than expected and allows mid- May sunshine through in the afternoon. Mostly clear conditions for tonight (outside of potential for low clouds moving into Cape Fear late tonight) with continued CAA dropping low temps into upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *No significant weather expected

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: Dry high pressure ridging into the area from the north and northeast will prevail. Below normal temps Monday/Monday night should get back closer to normal Tuesday/Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Highlights: *Low severe storm/flood risk possible starting Friday

Confidence:Widespread low stratus has settled in across the area, with ceilings around 300-600 feet. Still VFR at coastal NE SC terminals, but low ceilings will reach there over the next hour or two as a boundary continues southward. Ceilings will gradually lift throughout the day, widespread IFR around 14z and low-end MVFR around 18z. Will begin seeing breaks in the stratus during the afternoon, with VFR forecasted inland around 21-23z and coastal terminals 1-3z. Mostly clear skies after that for tonight, with low chance for another stratus deck to reach northern parts of our area by Monday morning.

Best chance for rain and isolated thunder will be across southern parts of the forecast area late morning into the afternoon. Steady northeast winds today into tonight.

*Moderate to High through Thursday night *Moderate Friday through Sunday

Details: Expect a warming trend into Thursday with surface high pressure offshore and mid-level high pressure building from the southwest. Should remain dry through at least Wednesday night with only a slight chance of inland showers/storms Thursday as moisture and shortwaves arrive from the west. Rain chances could increase a bit more Thursday night and especially starting Friday as moisture/forcing increase further. However, details of the best rain chances/amounts are elusive at this point as much depends on the timing of the best upper forcing. Although the threat looks pretty low for now, we should start to see at least a low risk for a few stronger storms and/or flooding beginning Friday as instability/shear increase.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Stratus has spread to affect all terminals attm with cigs in the 1100 to 1800 ft range. This is up a little as daytime heating has risen ceilings a little. Guidance is insistent that cigs will rise to MVFR by late afternoon and vfr overnight into Monday as drier air works in from the NE. The forecast reflects this idea but there are caveats as abundant moisture was noted in AM soundings below an inversion, particularly MHX. Satellite shows low clouds all the way up to southern NY with few breaks attm, so it's entirely possible that we may see another night of low cigs tonight. Additionally, some guidance is showing IFR/MVFR BR developing late tonight, particularly inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR during the day on Monday. VFR should otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day through the end of the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...As a boundary shifts south this morningWidespread low stratus has settled in across the area, with ceilings around 300- 600 feet. Still VFR at coastal NE SC terminals, but low ceilings will reach there over the next hour or two as a boundary continues southward. Ceilings will gradually lift throughout the day, widespread IFR around 14z and low-end MVFR around 18z. Will begin seeing breaks in the stratus during the afternoon, with VFR forecasted inland around 21-23z and coastal terminals 1-3z. Mostly clear skies after that for tonight, with low chance for another stratus deck to reach northern parts of our area by Monday morning.

Best chance for rain and isolated thunder will be across southern parts of the forecast area late morning into the afternoon. Steady northeast winds today into tonight.
and high pressure ridges down from the north, northeast flow will develop across the local coastal waters by late this morning.
Sustained winds 10-15 kts this afternoon will increase a bit into tonight in response to tightening pressure gradient, with gusts around 20 kts this evening and tonight. Seas around 2 ft this morning will increase to 2-4 ft by late afternoon, and 3-4 ft tonight, as NE wind wave builds and dominates the wave spectrum.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be mostly confined to coastal waters south of Cape Fear late this morning through the afternoon.

Monday through Friday...High pressure to the north/northeast will shift farther east mid to late week causing northerly winds to shift to more easterly Tuesday, southeasterly Wednesday and then southerly Wednesday night. No significant concerns expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Due to an upcoming full moon on Thursday, chances for minor coastal flooding will increase through the week. Minor coastal flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington is forecasted for this evening, and will remain likely with each evening high tide for most of the week. Coastal flooding at the local beaches will be possible mid-week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nixon Crossroads
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nixon Crossroads, ICWW, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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