Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning - .
Today - SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Sat - E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

AMZ100 358 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will build in today with multiple disturbances crossing the area over the next few days.

FXUS62 KMHX 020549 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 149 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 10 PM Wed... Overall the forecast is tracking well. ENC has dried out as expected with skies rapidly clearing and winds already becoming light and variable across a good portion of the area this evening. With high pressure ridging building overhead, expecting winds to continue to remain light and skies to remain clear tonight resulting in a fog threat this evening with patchy dense fog possible as well. This will potentially impact the morning commute. As a result have added areas of fog inland and patch fog elsewhere into the forecast. Otherwise forecast calls for lows in the upper 50s to low 60s tonight.

Prev Disc...Thunderstorm activity should be mainly diurnally- driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 8pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
As of 3 PM Wed...Much quieter day on tap. After morning low clouds/fog scour out, a warm day under mo sunny skies is expected. A sea-breeze will develop by afternoon, though limited moisture will preclude any shower activity along it, so we remain pop-free tomorrow afternoon. Highs should be quite warm, in the mid 80s interior, to mid 70s coast.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week

- Best rain chances on Sunday

FORECAST DETAILS

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1:45 AM Thursday...Light to calm winds and clear skies have set the table for fog development tonight and some sites are already bouncing back and forth from VFR to LIFR. This denser fog is expected to become more widespread over the next few hours and dissipate not long after sunrise. Clouds will increase in coverage and lower in height before sunrise, but CIGs are expected to stay within the FEW to SCT range. The OBX will hang on to greater cloud cover through the day tomorrow while the coastal plain will clear out after sunrise. Light variable winds will become southwesterly around 5 kts tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday. Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area. There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Winds will remain light (5-15kt) for the rest of the day and into the evening. In fact, winds become mostly calm to below 5 kt late, and therefore there will be a potential for fog across most area waters, sounds, and rivers. Seas of 2-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight, with 1-3 ft through the day Thu.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight with loss of heating, and be followed with an increased risk of fog.
The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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