Friday, September30, 2016 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:55PM Friday September 30, 2016 12:51 AM EDT (04:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:37AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1143 Pm Edt Thu Sep 29 2016
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop...increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning...then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms...mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds...increasing to 12 seconds in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop... Increasing to a moderate chop.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 300201
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
1001 pm edt Thu sep 29 2016

Synopsis
Upper level low pressure will remain quasi-stationary across the
ohio river valley through this weekend. High pressure will build
in from the north early next week and slide offshore by mid week.

Near term /overnight/
As of 10 pm thu... A break in rain shower activity is noted per
regional radar analysis and near term model guidance. Some
redevelopment of showers is possible late tonight and have a slow
increasing pop trend to chc/sct showers late tonight as additional
shortwave activity rides northeast on cyclonic side of upper low.

Previous discussion... As of 400 pm Thursday... Latest meso-
analysis continues to show a vertically stacked low pressure
system over the ohio valley while a weak low formed over nc/sc
border this morning and moved farther se. The low pushed the
frontal boundary across the eastern nc... Leading to low-level
moisture convergence over the coastal plains... While the main
frontal boundary remains over the piedmont region. The flash flood
watch will remain in effect through 10 pm as the latest radar
returns showing storms over the sc and is expected to stream into
the area later this afternoon/evening. Heavy downpours are still
possible as precip water values remain high; around 1.9 inches.

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue overnight, then
gradually diminishes as the vort energy lifts north of the area
and instability wanes. Another mild night expected with lows in
the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
As of 400 pm Thursday... Very little change to the pattern as the
upper low centered over the ky/in wobbles slightly north into
ohio, while at the sfc, the slow moving cold front moves farther
east. With diffluence remaining to the east of the upper low, low
level convergence, high precip water and additional vort energy
moving through the upper low this will help enhance showers and
thunderstorms aided by increased instability from diurnal heating
and around 25-30 kt of bulk shear. Expect highs in the low 80s
across the area.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
As of 3 am thu...

fri through sat... Big upper low will cont to the NW through the
end of the week with weak surface low/cold front to the west. This
will keep mainly srly flow over the area into sat. Models are
slower to push dry mid lvl air into the region Fri so pops have
been increased with chc all areas... Highest coast. Decent instab
develops again Fri so expect sct tsra some poss strong. Still
looks like decent axis of moisture will cont near the coast sat
and have chc pops cst tapering to slight chc or no pop deep
inland. Will remain warm with srly flow... Lows mainly mid 60s to
low 70s with highs in the low to poss mid 80s.

Sunday through mon... As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday
the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and
drifts off the coast mon. Models cont to keep better moisture
along and E of cst so cont low chc pops cst Sunday tapering to
slight chc Monday... Inland areas will be mainly dry. Not much
change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst
with highs upr 70s to lower 80s.

Tue through wed... High pres will gradually build in from the n
tue and slide E wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue with small
pop cst. On Wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a little
better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with more
pronounced nne flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss
around 80 s.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
Short term /through 18z Friday/...

as of 7 pm Thursday... With light winds and a moist boundary
layer, could see patchy fog or stratus late tonight but confidence
is low as to occurrence as guidance and has been overdone the past
few nights. Ultimately it will depend on amount of rain received
today and degree of cloud cover persisting tonight. Will continue
to indicate patchy 3sm vsbys with fog 06z- 12z. MainlyVFR
conditions expected during the day Friday but there will continue
to be a scattered shower/tstm threat.

Long term /fri night through Tuesday/...

as of 2 pm thu... Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Fri night with
a few periods of subVFR likely. Drier air will work in from the w
sat into Mon with decreasing chc of shra and mainlyVFR... There
will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and
stratus with light winds this weekend into early next week.

Marine
Short term /tonight and Friday/...

as of 400 pm Thursday... Latest buoy obs showing n/ne 5-10 knots
and seas 3-5 ft across the waters. A weak low over south carolina,
pushed a frontal boundary through the waters today with winds
mainly being northeast. Models are showing winds will slowly veer
se to S late tonight. Wind will remain southerly below 15 kt and
seas around 2-4 ft south of hatteras and 3 to 5 ft north.

Long term /fri through Monday/...

as of 3 am thu... Weak low pres/cold front W of the region fri
into Sat will lead to mainly S flow AOB 15 kts. The low/front will
slowly slide E toward the coast Sunday then move offshore Monday.

Light mostly S winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak.

Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet... Could flirt with
5 ft at times far outer waters... Especially Fri into Fri night.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk/bm
near term... Tl/bm
short term... Bm
long term... Rf
aviation... Rf/jbm/tl
marine... Rf/bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi43 min S 12 G 16 81°F 83°F1016.5 hPa
41159 31 mi56 min 82°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi33 min S 13 G 15 80°F 82°F1015 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi43 min S 12 G 16 80°F 81°F1017.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi52 min 80°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 38 mi66 min SW 4.1 78°F 1015 hPa73°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi33 min SSE 7 G 11 79°F 77°F1016 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi43 min S 12 G 16 81°F 81°F1016.4 hPa
WLON7 39 mi33 min 77°F 79°F1015.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi51 min SSE 12 G 14 79°F 1016.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1016.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi54 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5W7NW11N8NE6NE6E7E4SE8SE8SE8SE8CalmE5SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW5SW5--S9S12S13S8SE7S4CalmS3CalmS3S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmN3N4NE3CalmNE8S6E74SE5E5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:52 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.30.20.61.22.12.83.43.53.22.61.810.40.20.40.91.72.63.23.43.32.82

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Ocean City Beach (fishing pier)
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Fri -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.40.412.13.34.34.954.53.52.31.20.50.30.71.72.83.94.74.94.63.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.