Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 4:03 PM   Moonset 3:11 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 191751 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 151 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warming high pressure will build atop the region through the first half of the week. Along and ahead of a stalling cold front, showers and storms return on Thursday with chances continuing all weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1140 AM: Forecast moving along as expected this morning, so minimal changes were made as we head into the afternoon. Expect the cloud cover to gradually scatter out over the Piedmont. No need yet to make any changes to precip probs.

Otherwise...a closed low is centered over GA embedded within a shortwave which will slowly drift east into the Carolinas today. Main precip remaining over the area is very light and associated with deformation zone of the shortwave or via very weak convection along the front itself. Updated PoPs to allow this precip to slowly decay and focus increasingly south.

Beneath the shortwave, we retain pretty good lapse rates through most of the daytime hours. The northeasterly flow associated with the sfc high is deep and forcing really comes from the CAA, with no appreciable warm upglide. A subsidence inversion will persist over most of the Piedmont and should preclude new convection there this afternoon. However, over the mountains, the inversion will be weaker but also some degree of low-level convergence will be present owing to slightly more backed flow behind the shortwave meeting the easterly flow from the high. This should provide slight forcing. Deep dry air in the mid to upper levels would appear difficult for the relatively mild instability to overcome, so PoPs have been limited to chance range in the mountains. Storms likely will be slow moving but PWATs will be considerably lower than what we saw overnight, somewhat mitigating heavy rain threat. With the NE winds continuing, max temps will be several degrees below normal despite partial sunshine. Remaining PoPs will diminish nocturnally; some low stratus could develop near the Blue Ridge Escarpment overnight in the wedgelike easterly flow. Mins will be around normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday: The warming trend will continue through the forecast period as lower elevation max temperatures climb into the middle 80s by Wednesday. Building upper ridge atop the SE CONUS will keep the atmosphere suppressed, save for diurnal isolated ridgetop deep conection in the NC mtns Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: With developing lee trough and some downslope warming, Thursday has the potential to be the hottest day of the week with piedmont upper 80s possible, as long as convective and/or debris clouds limit insolation too early in the day. It looks like an active frontal zone is progged to approach and stall in or near the cwfa on Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.
This baroclinic zone should be able to aid in showers and tstms becoming numerous, especially across the mountains Thursday afternoon. Within the wavy quasi zonal flow atop the region Friday and into next weekend, daily, diurnally enhanced tstms are probable each day with temperatures averaging above the late May climo.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: We continue to deal with the remnants of an MVFR-level stratocu deck across the region east of the mtns this afternoon. Now that it was scattering out, enough heating should develop to more or less fill any holes with new convective clouds, so most likely the terminals will be in-and-out of the same MVFR-level bkn ceiling until we start to lose the daytime heating after 22Z or so. Meanwhile, over the mtns, low level convergence will continue to support scattered shower development, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. This will necessitate the inclusion of a TEMPO at KAVL for some showers thru late afternoon. By sunset, any wind gusts should go away and we should start to lose the lowest cloud layer, and we should be left only with some lingering scattered clouds. A light NE wind should remain overnight with high pressure to our north. Some of the guidance redevelops another low cloud deck around sunrise across the Piedmont, but this is low confidence at this time and was not included as a ceiling with this package. Monday looks nice a quiet.

Outlook: Stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday and persists through midweek, but isolated mountaintop convection still appears possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Precip and restrictions possible with next front arriving circa Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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