Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1252 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1252 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Breezy northeasterly winds early this week with a high pressure ridging from our north and low pressure offshore. Mostly dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 200019 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 819 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 8 PM Sunday...The forecast remains on track with no notable changes made with the evening update.

Previous Discussion
As of 330 PM Sunday
High pressure ridging extends S'wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S'ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a second mid level low currently moving south across portions of SE Georgia this afternoon. Both lows and cold front should continue to pull away from ENC this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build S'wards keeping the area dry outside of a stray shower or two along the Crystal Coast. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across the FA. As a result, highs have only gotten into the 60s to low 70s today across the region bringing a rather brisk end to the weekend.

As we get into tonight, upper level trough is forecast to push further offshore while upper ridging builds in from the west. At the same time associated mid level shortwaves continue to pull further away from the region. This will allow high pressure ridging to further entrench itself across the Carolinas tonight resulting in some dry air finally beginning to overspread the area. Some reduction in cloud cover is forecast especially across the Coastal Plain early this evening with portions of our western CWA potentially seeing partly to mo clear skies for a brief period of time tonight. However as we near daybreak continued NE'rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread much if not all of ENC by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the evening progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE'rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon.
Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 7:45 PM Sunday...Cloud cover is diminishing and all TAF sites are finally back to VFR. Far eastern terminals, however, are holding onto MVFR ceilings. The majority of the coastal plain is expected to remain VFR until early tomorrow morning.
Low-level cloud cover will increase from E to W early Monday morning as gusty northeasterly winds pump in moisture from the Atlantic. How far inland these low clouds spread is the main question. The expectation is for ceilings along the OBX to remain MVFR through the overnight hours tonight, spreading westward through ~12Z tomorrow morning. Eastern terminals (EWN and OAJ) have the best chance at seeing MVFR ceilings while western terminals (PGV and ISO) should remain VFR. Cloud cover will diminish as it retreats eastward through the day tomorrow, but it's very possible that the OBX will be stuck with MVFR ceilings through the day. Confidence in fog was not high enough to include in the TAFs. Some patchy fog development is possible, especially given the widespread rainfall we received yesterday, but dense fog is not expected areawide. The best chance for fog development would be for far western terminals (PGV and ISO) where cloud cover will be the most scarce and winds have the best chance of decoupling.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE'rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA's that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE'rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 150-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:56 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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