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FXUS64 KOUN 192306 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 606 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A moist and unstable airmass is in place across the area ahead of a dryline, which has positioned itself to the west of the western OK/ TX panhandle border as of mid-afternoon. We expect isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development to occur within the next one to two hours along the dryline, with initially high- based supercells expected which will be capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. As we head into the evening hours, there still appears to be a window for a tornado threat if any of these supercells can sustain themselves, remain discrete, and not become too outflow dominant, as the low-level shear ramps up with a strengthening low level jet.

Additional convection is expected to develop across southern Kansas where forcing will be greater and capping will be weaker near the mid-level shortwave. This area of storms is expected to grow upscale into a convective complex this evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging, potentially significant (80+ mph) wind gusts. The bulk of this is currently expected to remain in Kansas and far northern Oklahoma, but could potentially make it further south if it is able to interact with the low-level jet and lead to a more southward propagation of the line.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Monday looks to be the least convectively active day of this week as shortwave ridging moves over the region ahead of our next system.
This next wave still appears to be poorly timed and is expected to be east of the area by peak heating. However, subtle height falls are still shown in the models even behind the wave Tuesday afternoon and evening as the area remains within a broader scale longwave trough centered across the western US. If this were to occur, subsidence behind the wave may not be all that strong and given a moist and unstable airmass in place, capping could potentially be overcome. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central and eastern portions of the area ahead of the dryline, with additional development possible along a cold front that will move into the area Tuesday evening. The main hazards with storms on Tuesday appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, with veered low-level flow potentially limiting tornado potential somewhat.

The cold front will slow its southward progression on Wednesday, likely stalling in the vicinity of southeast Oklahoma, where another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will attempt to lift back north ahead of another shortwave approaching the area on Thursday, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty on how far north the front lifts and the extent the airmass can destabilize with the potential for lingering clouds/precipitation Thursday morning.
Nevertheless, another round of severe thunderstorms is expected near and south of the boundary Thursday afternoon and evening.

At least some potential for additional rounds of storms (potentially severe) looks to continue Friday into next weekend as an unstable airmass remains ahead of an oscillating dryline and a band of southwesterly flow is maintained aloft.

Ware

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storms to impact northern sites WWR/PNC/SWO this evening with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. Could see some MVFR ceilings late tonight across north central into central OK before VFR conditions return area-wide. South winds will remain rather gusyt tonight and will remain so across much of the area through the day Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 68 91 73 91 / 40 0 0 20 Hobart OK 67 98 71 96 / 20 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 72 95 74 93 / 10 0 0 10 Gage OK 61 95 65 93 / 30 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 89 72 93 / 70 0 0 20 Durant OK 70 89 72 88 / 10 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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