Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
May 19, 2024 11:32 AM PDT (18:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM Moonset 2:56 AM |
PZZ830 Pigeon Point To Point Piedras Blancas Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 901 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - N to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Sun - N to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Sun night - N to nw winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
Mon - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
Mon night - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 15 ft.
Tue - N to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
Wed - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
Wed night - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
Thu - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
Thu night - NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 857 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sun - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Sun night - NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to sw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Wed - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
Wed night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Thu - W to nw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 191549 AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 849 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024
Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day.
UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Sky conditions are already improving over the North Bay at this hour and will soon clear over the Central Coast by mid-to-late morning.
The HRRR has clouds dissipating even out over the ocean by late afternoon. As such, expecting slightly warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior with upper 50's to near 70 degrees at the coast. No updates are anticipated at this time.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Tonight's stratus coverage is not as extensive as previous nights with patchier stratus inland and more widespread stratus along the coastline. Stratus is expected to clear out by mid-morning throughout the Bay Area. Confidence in the timing of stratus dissipation along the Central Coast is a little lower with, as discussed in the previous AFD, models are not handling the current setup well. The most likely scenario is stratus will briefly break up during the afternoon along the coast before overcast conditions return by the late evening. Slight upper level troughing and gusty conditions over the coastal waters will keep the marine layer more mixed and keep stratus confined closer to the coast.
Inland temperatures today will be fairly seasonal while temperatures along the coast will be seasonal to slightly below average due to stratus coverage limiting surface warming. Inland highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s while coastal highs stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some potential (generally 5-10% chance) for coastal drizzle tonight from Santa Cruz to the Big Sur coastline but minimal to no accumulation is expected.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.
By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid to late morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate to gusty winds Sunday afternoon that last into the night. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly inland Sunday evening, affecting SNS and MRY.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate winds overnight with gusty westerly winds building into the afternoon. Wind gusts will reduce into Sunday night, and become moderate for the late night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through early Sunday afternoon with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites.
Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR and IFR CIGs return early Sunday night.
MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 849 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024
Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day.
UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Sky conditions are already improving over the North Bay at this hour and will soon clear over the Central Coast by mid-to-late morning.
The HRRR has clouds dissipating even out over the ocean by late afternoon. As such, expecting slightly warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior with upper 50's to near 70 degrees at the coast. No updates are anticipated at this time.
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Tonight's stratus coverage is not as extensive as previous nights with patchier stratus inland and more widespread stratus along the coastline. Stratus is expected to clear out by mid-morning throughout the Bay Area. Confidence in the timing of stratus dissipation along the Central Coast is a little lower with, as discussed in the previous AFD, models are not handling the current setup well. The most likely scenario is stratus will briefly break up during the afternoon along the coast before overcast conditions return by the late evening. Slight upper level troughing and gusty conditions over the coastal waters will keep the marine layer more mixed and keep stratus confined closer to the coast.
Inland temperatures today will be fairly seasonal while temperatures along the coast will be seasonal to slightly below average due to stratus coverage limiting surface warming. Inland highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s while coastal highs stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some potential (generally 5-10% chance) for coastal drizzle tonight from Santa Cruz to the Big Sur coastline but minimal to no accumulation is expected.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.
By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid to late morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate to gusty winds Sunday afternoon that last into the night. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly inland Sunday evening, affecting SNS and MRY.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate winds overnight with gusty westerly winds building into the afternoon. Wind gusts will reduce into Sunday night, and become moderate for the late night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through early Sunday afternoon with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites.
Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR and IFR CIGs return early Sunday night.
MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
San Francisco Bay Area, CA,
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