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FXUS64 KMEG 192332 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and dry weather will continue across the Mid-South through Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A ridge of high pressure is expected to weaken across the Lower Mississippi Valley by mid- week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday afternoon and continue into the Memorial Day weekend as a cold front weakens and stalls out across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Surface and upper-level ridging in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley has resulted in a dry day with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the middle 80s across many locations.
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential for mid to late week is the primary concern in this afternoon's forecast issuance.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather to the Mid-South through Tuesday. 925 mb temperatures are expected to rise to between 22-24C, translating to afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. NBM guidance has been slightly too cool and blended high temperatures towards the NBM 50th/75th percentiles.

Mid-range operational and ensemble model runs indicate the upper- level ridge will begin to weaken across the Lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Upstream convection may begin to drop into the Mid-South towards sunrise Wednesday.
However, confidence isn't particularly high with a strong capping inversion expected to be initially in place across the area. This capping inversion is expected to weaken later Wednesday afternoon as modest mid-level height falls begin to spread into the region.

Surface-based CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values in excess of 35 kts, moderately-steep to steep mid- level lapse rates, and favorable upper-level divergence produced by the right entrance region of a 130 kt 250 mb upper-level jet streak may be sufficient for the development of organized severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat. This convective threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs
Stay tuned

Long range ensemble model trends show mid to upper level flow becoming nearly zonal across the Mid-South late next week into the Memorial Day weekend. This will result in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during peak heating.

CJC

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as a midlevel ridge builds in. Light winds overnight should pick up to 6-9kts from the south/southeast by mid morning tomorrow.

CAD

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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