Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:44 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 200759 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 359 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM Monday...

A mid-level, 700-500 mb anticyclone centered over the mid-South in 00Z RAOB data will drift ewd and become situated over the Carolinas and srn Middle Atlantic by tonight. Underlying surface high pressure will continue to extend across the Middle Atlantic and Southeast.

Nely low-level flow and continued radiational cooling this morning will contribute to the expansion of fog and low overcast over all but the far nw Piedmont, the latter where multi-layered stratocumulus and altocumulus will likely persist. The depth of the associated stratus/fog layer should be much shallower and consequently disperse more quickly than that of Sun morning, with partly to mostly sunny conditions expected after ~14Z. Associated insolation, and modification of the surface ridge and air mass, will yield high temperatures generally within a couple of degrees either side of 80F. The presence and proximity of the surface ridge will favor calm and mainly clear tonight, which will support excellent radiational cooling into mostly the low-mid 50s and with an accompanying redevelopment of areas of radiation fog/stratus Tue morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM Monday...

A weak mid-level trough will move across the cntl Appalachians and Middle Atlantic through 12Z Wed, while ridging will otherwise extend across the Southeast. Surface high pressure that will initially extend along the Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore and result in the development of sely/"return" flow Tue afternoon and mainly calm Tue night. High temperatures should respond and increase into the lwr-mid 80s, followed by another night of strong radiational cooling into mostly the mid-upr 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 311 AM Monday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging over the eastern US will shift offshore through Wednesday evening. A low- amplitude upper trough will then lift through the Great Lakes Thursday. A short wave will then move through the TN Valley and wash out over central NC Friday into the weekend.

Wednesday: The western ridge of an offshore sfc high will extend light sswly flow across central NC on Wednesday. Void of forcing for ascent and lingering below normal PWAT, Wednesday will remain dry. Given the sswly flow, however, temps will begin to steadily rise reaching the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight lows in the lower 60s is expected.

Thursday through Sunday. Ensembles continue to suggest the potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears to stay well to our north, and thus continue to maintain just slight chance to low chance POPs across our central to northern areas during this time.

From Friday onward, ensembles continue to simulate a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Sunday. Periods of rain look promising over this temporal period, the details of which are hard to pin down at this point. Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at this point, but periods of higher shear could promote some isolated stronger storms especially Friday afternoon/evening.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.



AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 115 AM Monday...

A band of IFR-MVFR stratus now over ern VA/NC, and as far west as RWI, will continue to spread wwd and across cntl NC this morning.
Visibility restrictions will develop both on the ern edge of that cloud band, and also in preceding, patches of shallow, radiation fog ahead of it. A separate area of multi-layered, stratocumulus and altocumulus over wrn NC/VA, and as far east as INT/GSO, will probably inhibit radiational cooling sufficiently to keep any sub- VFR restrictions at INT very brief around daybreak, if at all. The depth of the associated stratus/fog layer, where it occurs, should be much shallower and consequently disperse more quickly to VFR than that of Sun morning - likely by 13-14Z.

Outlook: A risk of late night-early morning fog/stratus will continue especially over ern and e-cntl NC through mid-week, followed by a chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms Thu and Fri.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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