Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:56 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 200915 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 415 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be fading fast by daybreak and should be gone entirely by mid morning. A dry day is then expected, with very warm and humid conditions. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with breezy south winds.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday evening as mid level temperatures cool and a cold front begins to move into the area from the north. Some of these storms will likely be severe, with all severe weather hazards possible.

The frontal boundary will stall by late Wednesday across the southern part of our forecast area, and will be the focus for another round of showers and storms on both sides of the front.
Severe storms will again be possible, with hail being the main threat on the cool side of the front. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with this round of storms.

The front will lift north as a warm front later Thursday, and another round of showers and storms will erupt as an upper wave traverses the area.

Shower and storm chances will continue Friday through the weekend, but confidence in location and timing of the best storm potential is low at this time range. Long range models suggest the stormy weather pattern may finally break early next week, and this pattern change may be the beginning of the annual trend away from severe storms and towards summer heat that normally starts taking place just after Memorial Day.

Lowered NBM high temperatures late this week through the weekend towards the MOS guidance numbers as the NBM seems to be kickstarting the summer heat a bit too quickly.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Decaying cluster of thunderstorms will continue over northeast OK, with some re-generation of cells possible early in the forecast period. Still could see strong gusty winds at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS associated with any storm. Most likely, any storms should dissipate before reaching northwest AR. Aside form that, VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south winds from mid- morning until around sunset Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 90 73 90 64 / 10 0 20 50 FSM 92 70 90 71 / 20 0 0 30 MLC 89 72 87 70 / 0 0 10 30 BVO 89 70 90 61 / 10 0 20 50 FYV 88 67 87 66 / 20 0 10 50 BYV 88 69 87 66 / 20 0 10 50 MKO 88 72 88 68 / 10 0 10 50 MIO 88 71 87 62 / 30 0 20 60 F10 88 72 87 66 / 10 0 10 40 HHW 87 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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