Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
May 19, 2024 8:01 PM MDT (02:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM Moonset 2:59 AM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 192337 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 437 PM MST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong winds are expected Monday along with slightly cooler temperatures. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers Monday afternoon and evening in eastern Arizona. Dry, mild, and breezy weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the coming week.
DISCUSSION
Sunny and warm conditions prevail across northern Arizona this afternoon. Tightening gradients in advance of a trough approaching the west coast are producing increased southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph. These winds will decrease after sunset. Monday - the trough will move eastward across the region through the day. Winds will increase further, with gusts 40-55 mph forecast for much of the region, and a Wind Advisory has been issued from mid morning through early evening for all areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns, as well as the Yavapai County mountains/Prescott area. The Fire Weather Watch for Monday was also upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, with Oak Creek Canyon/Sedona added to the warning. Another interesting feature in Monday's weather pattern, is the model trends toward a slug of mostly mid level moisture being pulled northeastward into the state by afternoon/evening. We have increased PoPs from Payson to the White Mtns, toward Window Rock into the 10-20% range. Though this mostly looks like virga and sprinkles, some areas could actually get a couple hundredths of rain. This should occur after the critical fire weather in northeast Arizona, so the Red Flag Warning looks good even with the slight rain chances.
Tuesday - the low moves east of the state Tuesday, resulting in lighter winds. Gusts to around 30-35 mph are still possible in east central Arizona around St Johns, but other areas will be closer to 20-25 mph. Morning lows will be a bit below normal with the decreasing wind and dry air mass, near to a bit below freezing for the usual high country cold spots. Wednesday through Saturday - pretty typical May weather pattern expected, with dry and breezy conditions each day. Morning lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be chilly again in the high country with more near to slightly below freezing values in the cold spots.
Daytime highs also slightly below normal. Low pressure passing north of the state Thursday/Friday could cause winds to pick up again, with 30-35 mph gusts currently forecast. Yet another trough off the Pacific is showing up in much of the guidance for Saturday, favoring a continued breezy and cooler than normal forecast but little chance for rain.
AVIATION
Monday 20/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...SW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts continue through about 03Z and then decrease to 5-15 kts overnight. SW winds increase again after 15Z becoming 20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts. The strongest winds will be north of a KFLG - KSOW line. Local visibility reductions possible from wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust on Monday, with otherwise VFR. A low chance (15-20%) exists for showers east of a KPAN - KRQE line Monday afternoon.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 21/00Z through Thursday 23/00Z
Strong SW winds gusting up to 45 kts continue through 02Z Tuesday before decreasing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. W to SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoons.
FIRE WEATHER
Monday and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions for Monday with critical fire weather conditions expected. A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Less windy on Tuesday with west winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 437 PM MST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong winds are expected Monday along with slightly cooler temperatures. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers Monday afternoon and evening in eastern Arizona. Dry, mild, and breezy weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the coming week.
DISCUSSION
Sunny and warm conditions prevail across northern Arizona this afternoon. Tightening gradients in advance of a trough approaching the west coast are producing increased southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph. These winds will decrease after sunset. Monday - the trough will move eastward across the region through the day. Winds will increase further, with gusts 40-55 mph forecast for much of the region, and a Wind Advisory has been issued from mid morning through early evening for all areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns, as well as the Yavapai County mountains/Prescott area. The Fire Weather Watch for Monday was also upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, with Oak Creek Canyon/Sedona added to the warning. Another interesting feature in Monday's weather pattern, is the model trends toward a slug of mostly mid level moisture being pulled northeastward into the state by afternoon/evening. We have increased PoPs from Payson to the White Mtns, toward Window Rock into the 10-20% range. Though this mostly looks like virga and sprinkles, some areas could actually get a couple hundredths of rain. This should occur after the critical fire weather in northeast Arizona, so the Red Flag Warning looks good even with the slight rain chances.
Tuesday - the low moves east of the state Tuesday, resulting in lighter winds. Gusts to around 30-35 mph are still possible in east central Arizona around St Johns, but other areas will be closer to 20-25 mph. Morning lows will be a bit below normal with the decreasing wind and dry air mass, near to a bit below freezing for the usual high country cold spots. Wednesday through Saturday - pretty typical May weather pattern expected, with dry and breezy conditions each day. Morning lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be chilly again in the high country with more near to slightly below freezing values in the cold spots.
Daytime highs also slightly below normal. Low pressure passing north of the state Thursday/Friday could cause winds to pick up again, with 30-35 mph gusts currently forecast. Yet another trough off the Pacific is showing up in much of the guidance for Saturday, favoring a continued breezy and cooler than normal forecast but little chance for rain.
AVIATION
Monday 20/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...SW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts continue through about 03Z and then decrease to 5-15 kts overnight. SW winds increase again after 15Z becoming 20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts. The strongest winds will be north of a KFLG - KSOW line. Local visibility reductions possible from wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust on Monday, with otherwise VFR. A low chance (15-20%) exists for showers east of a KPAN - KRQE line Monday afternoon.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 21/00Z through Thursday 23/00Z
Strong SW winds gusting up to 45 kts continue through 02Z Tuesday before decreasing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. W to SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoons.
FIRE WEATHER
Monday and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions for Monday with critical fire weather conditions expected. A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Less windy on Tuesday with west winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.
Flagstaff, AZ,
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