Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesville, VA
May 20, 2024 6:43 AM EDT (10:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 5:03 PM Moonset 3:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 200709 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 309 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Key Messages:
1. Most locations will be dry, but there may be a few isolated showers/thunderstorms today mainly eastern mountains.
Discussion:
Upper ridging over the region will gradually slide east, and surface high pressure will continue to extend into our area during the short term period. Most locations will be dry with plenty of sunshine, but there may be enough modest instability for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop today over SW NC and the eastern TN mountains. Any weak convection is expected to dissipate by tonight. Temperatures will generally run around 3-5 degrees above seasonal normals both today and tonight.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Key Messages:
1. Dry and warm weather to continue through Wednesday, with only isolated thunderstorm potential generally in the higher elevations.
2. Unsettled pattern with multiple rounds of showers and storms possible Thursday through the weekend.
Discussion:
Starting off the period, low level ridging anchored along the Appalachian Mountains will provide for warm and dry weather for most, with only a low chance of a thunderstorm in the higher terrain Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
As Thursday enters the picture, the long mentioned front will be washing out in the periphery of the Ohio River, bringing a return for higher rain chances. The bulk of the storms daytime Thursday look likely to be draped to our north along the frontal boundary, however with the close proximity of the front, ensemble guidance still has 30% to 60% chance PoPs by the afternoon, weighted towards the northern Cumberland Plateau and northeastwards, closest to the frontal zone. Afterwards rain chances remain elevated as we go into Friday and the weekend, as a series of weak shortwave disturbances swing through in the flow providing opportunities for additional rainfall. GEFS ensemble probabilities have backed off slightly for greater than 2 inches of rain through the weekend, with the Euro mean more pessimistic at only 50% chance for an inch of QPF. GFS appears to be strongest with the Friday shortwave to a point that a strong thunderstorm would be possible, but it also appears to be an outlier in the strength of that shortwave versus the Euro and both ensembles. Because of that outlier nature, for now there's no particular concern for any significant weather, severe or hydrological.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Possible fog development early in the period is the primary aviation weather concern, and right now the most likely location to be impacted appears to be TRI. For now will include a few hours of MVFR vsby there toward sunrise, but lower conditions are possible as is fog development elsewhere. Other than the possible fog, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 85 64 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 62 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 83 61 / 10 0 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 309 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Key Messages:
1. Most locations will be dry, but there may be a few isolated showers/thunderstorms today mainly eastern mountains.
Discussion:
Upper ridging over the region will gradually slide east, and surface high pressure will continue to extend into our area during the short term period. Most locations will be dry with plenty of sunshine, but there may be enough modest instability for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop today over SW NC and the eastern TN mountains. Any weak convection is expected to dissipate by tonight. Temperatures will generally run around 3-5 degrees above seasonal normals both today and tonight.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Key Messages:
1. Dry and warm weather to continue through Wednesday, with only isolated thunderstorm potential generally in the higher elevations.
2. Unsettled pattern with multiple rounds of showers and storms possible Thursday through the weekend.
Discussion:
Starting off the period, low level ridging anchored along the Appalachian Mountains will provide for warm and dry weather for most, with only a low chance of a thunderstorm in the higher terrain Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
As Thursday enters the picture, the long mentioned front will be washing out in the periphery of the Ohio River, bringing a return for higher rain chances. The bulk of the storms daytime Thursday look likely to be draped to our north along the frontal boundary, however with the close proximity of the front, ensemble guidance still has 30% to 60% chance PoPs by the afternoon, weighted towards the northern Cumberland Plateau and northeastwards, closest to the frontal zone. Afterwards rain chances remain elevated as we go into Friday and the weekend, as a series of weak shortwave disturbances swing through in the flow providing opportunities for additional rainfall. GEFS ensemble probabilities have backed off slightly for greater than 2 inches of rain through the weekend, with the Euro mean more pessimistic at only 50% chance for an inch of QPF. GFS appears to be strongest with the Friday shortwave to a point that a strong thunderstorm would be possible, but it also appears to be an outlier in the strength of that shortwave versus the Euro and both ensembles. Because of that outlier nature, for now there's no particular concern for any significant weather, severe or hydrological.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Possible fog development early in the period is the primary aviation weather concern, and right now the most likely location to be impacted appears to be TRI. For now will include a few hours of MVFR vsby there toward sunrise, but lower conditions are possible as is fog development elsewhere. Other than the possible fog, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 85 64 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 62 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 83 61 / 10 0 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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