Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
May 20, 2024 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:33 PM Moonset 3:01 AM |
FXUS63 KPAH 201101 AAB AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 601 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot the next few days.
- A front stalls over the area Wednesday bringing a daily chances of rain and thunderstorms through this weekend.
- Severe thunderstorm and especially flash flood risks will likely emerge in the Wednesday through Sunday period but each days risk will depend on prior activity and will have to be evaluated day to day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
An active pattern continue through the week this week. A decaying MCS and associated upper level shortwave will approach the region. It is possible we will see a few showers or storms along the Interstate 64 corridor very late this afternoon or this evening, under the influence of this system but the thermodynamic situation is pretty marginal overall. Hot conditions are expected again today with the only shade some variable high cloudiness from convective blowoff.
Tuesday a sharp shortwave over the upper midwest strengthens a low level cyclone over MN/IA which sharpens our low level pressure gradient leading to a decent south breeze in otherwise warm conditions. Responding southwest winds aloft advect an elevated mixed layer in over the area Tuesday which steepens mid level lapse rates and provides a stout capping inversion to low level parcels. GFS/NAM/ECMWF show a net height increase through the day swapping after 00z (as upper diffluence moves overhead)
with deeper column moisture moving in from the west at the same time. Rain and thunder chances start to increase in the late evening in ensemble guidance but it may take a bit for the residual capping inversion to be lifted out and there is not a great deal of higher level moisture for elevated parcels. If an organized MCS can approach in the Tuesday overnight it might cut through the cap more effectively, otherwise we may have to wait til the late overnight to get much precip.
Wednesday is a messy picture overall. Moisture is rich through much of the column with model PWAT from 1.6-1.8 inches, which is above the 90th percent climatologically. The region is projected to sit in a broadly diffluent upper level pattern with a 120-kt over IL/IN with a branch dipping southeast into AL/GA and various ripples and speed changes in the jet to our north. So fairly strong net height falls at time. The GFS/ECMWF generate convection frequently enough in the day to prevent surface heating - which makes sense in the pattern - where the NAM holds things off until late afternoon amid 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Both solutions are plausible but I would tend to bet on the wetter GFS for now. Deep layer shear would be sufficient for storm organization and low-level shear is approaching strong enough to make hodographs shaped in a way that might support tornadoes. In general though the day has the look of a developing flash flood threat. If a severe thunderstorm threat can emerge it looks like a wind and hail threat primarily based on the 00z guidance suite.
GFS/ECMWF keeps the upper level pattern pretty consistent through Thursday with southwest to northeast flow that allows a front to remain pretty stationary over the area.
Thunderstorms/rain develop along the front in the global guidance. GFS/ECMWF send a shortwave trough overhead, the GFS is a little further south with this feature pinging heavier rain to the south of the area. It appears however there will at least be potential for heavy rain/flooding and severe weather. Both global models then send another shortwave to our northwest sparking showers and storms again Friday into Saturday with a larger scale storm system spinning up over the Plains Sunday.
PWAT values stay well above climo norms with areas of lift from Wednesday through Sunday. Antecedent soil conditions are roughly normal for this time of year, not really dry or overly wet either but leaning towards wet overall. Some flash flooding issues appear entirely possible with periods of severe thunderstorm threat as well. Confidence is relatively low given the complexity added by the interactions of multiple shortwave troughs and multiple convective episodes so expect daily adjustments to the outlook as the picture develops over the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected today with light south to southwest winds. Light winds are expected overnight before breezier conditions develop during the day Tuesday.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 601 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot the next few days.
- A front stalls over the area Wednesday bringing a daily chances of rain and thunderstorms through this weekend.
- Severe thunderstorm and especially flash flood risks will likely emerge in the Wednesday through Sunday period but each days risk will depend on prior activity and will have to be evaluated day to day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
An active pattern continue through the week this week. A decaying MCS and associated upper level shortwave will approach the region. It is possible we will see a few showers or storms along the Interstate 64 corridor very late this afternoon or this evening, under the influence of this system but the thermodynamic situation is pretty marginal overall. Hot conditions are expected again today with the only shade some variable high cloudiness from convective blowoff.
Tuesday a sharp shortwave over the upper midwest strengthens a low level cyclone over MN/IA which sharpens our low level pressure gradient leading to a decent south breeze in otherwise warm conditions. Responding southwest winds aloft advect an elevated mixed layer in over the area Tuesday which steepens mid level lapse rates and provides a stout capping inversion to low level parcels. GFS/NAM/ECMWF show a net height increase through the day swapping after 00z (as upper diffluence moves overhead)
with deeper column moisture moving in from the west at the same time. Rain and thunder chances start to increase in the late evening in ensemble guidance but it may take a bit for the residual capping inversion to be lifted out and there is not a great deal of higher level moisture for elevated parcels. If an organized MCS can approach in the Tuesday overnight it might cut through the cap more effectively, otherwise we may have to wait til the late overnight to get much precip.
Wednesday is a messy picture overall. Moisture is rich through much of the column with model PWAT from 1.6-1.8 inches, which is above the 90th percent climatologically. The region is projected to sit in a broadly diffluent upper level pattern with a 120-kt over IL/IN with a branch dipping southeast into AL/GA and various ripples and speed changes in the jet to our north. So fairly strong net height falls at time. The GFS/ECMWF generate convection frequently enough in the day to prevent surface heating - which makes sense in the pattern - where the NAM holds things off until late afternoon amid 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Both solutions are plausible but I would tend to bet on the wetter GFS for now. Deep layer shear would be sufficient for storm organization and low-level shear is approaching strong enough to make hodographs shaped in a way that might support tornadoes. In general though the day has the look of a developing flash flood threat. If a severe thunderstorm threat can emerge it looks like a wind and hail threat primarily based on the 00z guidance suite.
GFS/ECMWF keeps the upper level pattern pretty consistent through Thursday with southwest to northeast flow that allows a front to remain pretty stationary over the area.
Thunderstorms/rain develop along the front in the global guidance. GFS/ECMWF send a shortwave trough overhead, the GFS is a little further south with this feature pinging heavier rain to the south of the area. It appears however there will at least be potential for heavy rain/flooding and severe weather. Both global models then send another shortwave to our northwest sparking showers and storms again Friday into Saturday with a larger scale storm system spinning up over the Plains Sunday.
PWAT values stay well above climo norms with areas of lift from Wednesday through Sunday. Antecedent soil conditions are roughly normal for this time of year, not really dry or overly wet either but leaning towards wet overall. Some flash flooding issues appear entirely possible with periods of severe thunderstorm threat as well. Confidence is relatively low given the complexity added by the interactions of multiple shortwave troughs and multiple convective episodes so expect daily adjustments to the outlook as the picture develops over the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected today with light south to southwest winds. Light winds are expected overnight before breezier conditions develop during the day Tuesday.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 67 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.93 |
Paducah, KY,
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