Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clinchco, VA
May 20, 2024 8:01 AM EDT (12:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 5:01 PM Moonset 3:29 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 201055 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 655 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 550 AM Monday...
The forecast remains on track. GOES-16 Microphysics shows patchy river valley fog across the area with some low stratus across portions of Pocahontas County and down into the VA mountains.
Still have some chances for some isolated showers or a thunderstorm across the mountains later this afternoon. Any rainfall that occurs with these will enhance another round of valley fog tonight.
As of 200 AM Monday...
Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.
Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90 degrees.
There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed across the area with this strong high pressure system.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations hitting 90 degrees.
The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further diverge.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 640 AM Monday...
VFR conditions will resume for today after fog lifts and dissipates this morning. Restrictions could still occur at these sites between ~12-1230Z as it lifts, but allowed an IFR/LIFR tempo group at each due to the patchiness of the fog.
Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. BKW is the closest site that may see a shower later, but nothing certain at this time.
Another round of patchy valley fog is possible tonight, especially along the mountains if any rainfall occurs.
Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and variable surface flow is expected at all sites by afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR could vary from forecast with VCFG at EKN and CRW. Showers or thunderstorms end up being more widespread this afternoon and evening across the mountains.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 655 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 550 AM Monday...
The forecast remains on track. GOES-16 Microphysics shows patchy river valley fog across the area with some low stratus across portions of Pocahontas County and down into the VA mountains.
Still have some chances for some isolated showers or a thunderstorm across the mountains later this afternoon. Any rainfall that occurs with these will enhance another round of valley fog tonight.
As of 200 AM Monday...
Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.
Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90 degrees.
There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed across the area with this strong high pressure system.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations hitting 90 degrees.
The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 235 AM Monday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further diverge.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 640 AM Monday...
VFR conditions will resume for today after fog lifts and dissipates this morning. Restrictions could still occur at these sites between ~12-1230Z as it lifts, but allowed an IFR/LIFR tempo group at each due to the patchiness of the fog.
Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the mountains this afternoon. BKW is the closest site that may see a shower later, but nothing certain at this time.
Another round of patchy valley fog is possible tonight, especially along the mountains if any rainfall occurs.
Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and variable surface flow is expected at all sites by afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR could vary from forecast with VCFG at EKN and CRW. Showers or thunderstorms end up being more widespread this afternoon and evening across the mountains.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 17 sm | 26 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 30.09 |
Jackson, KY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE